Match 20 - Poland v Croatia / Matthew Walton / 15 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Croatia's future in this tournament has already been decided. With Group B in the bag courtesy of their win over Germany, Slavan Bilic's side have little to do here other than stay out of trouble. Their work in this group is done.

Poland, on the other hand, are fighting for their lives. A win is the only result which will suffice and even that might not be good enough. Howard Webb's late penalty decision in the Austria match turned Poland's tournament on its head and has taken their fate out of their own hands.

What we do get as a consequence is a fascinating match-up. Will the Croats take it easy or will fringe players be out to impress Bilic? Do the Poles go hell-for-leather for the win until they hear the score from Vienna - and if Germany go 2-0 up, say, inside the first 20 minutes do they then down tools?

All these matters will be resolved in 90 minutes of Alpine action which is critical for the Poles but incidental for the Croats. Either way, we have to let the data dictate how we approach this game.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Poland v Croatia - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Poland - P58 W32 D10 L16 F101 A61, clean sheets 22/58 (37%)
Croatia - P66 W39 D17 L10 F113 A47, clean sheets 35/66 (53%)

Poland give too much away at the back. Just 37% clean sheets and 1.05 goals/game conceded (and over one goal per game is poor at this level). They score and win a decent enough percentage but every good team has a good defence, and Poland don't. As for Croatia, they have good figures although 1.71 goals/game isn't a stellar scoring record. Mind you, that is backed up with 53% clean sheets and just 0.71 goals/game conceded.

Poland v Croatia - Match Facts

With only four games played between the two sides we have little on which to base any substantial conclusions. Croatia have slightly the better of the results, as you might expect, and that is the main feature of their encounters. Polish supporters may draw some hope from their last meeting, a 1-0 win in Wolfsburg two years ago.

That win might cause optimism within the ranks but Leo Beenhakker knows his side must put in a much improved performance to win this game. His reign has done little to arrest the Pole's defensive failings and attacking mediocrity. In short, they enter this game more in hope than expectation.

How do Croatia play this one? Bilic has few miles on the managerial clock so we have to guess whether he's a whip-cracker or back-slapper. Is the group qualification a job well done or does he still expect players to give it 100% in this finale? The answer to that will go a long way to determining your take on this match.

Poland v Croatia - Market Analysis

Outright result - those who subscribe to the theory that sides who have to win, get the result, will back Poland at [2.5]. Followers of form study would marginally side with Croatia to win at [3.0]. The sensible call might well be to split the pair with the biggest priced option as the draw at [3.55] is another quite possible outcome to this match.

Correct Score - the 1-1 draw [7.4] covers off the draw option quite well and answers concerns about Poland leaking goals and Croatia not putting in a full shift (they have two 1-1 draws in recent friendlies). The only other option would be Poland 1-0 [9.0] should this prove to have testimonial overtones with Croatia simply enjoying a competitive training session.

First Goalscorer - Ebi Smolarek [8.0] scored the goal when Poland last beat Croatia and he also looks the mostly likely threat from the Poles. As for Croatia, who share the goals around, their line-up will effect this market but Darijo Srna [13.5] appeals at a fair mark.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - the last games in group matches tend to lead to goals. Hence the [1.35] for the 'over' has appeal on this basis alone. However, the 'under' [3.55] is a tempting price if Croatia shut up shop and Poland simply fail to deliver (which wouldn't be a huge surprise!).

Conclusion

Difficult to know how to take this match. It's a simple call to go for Poland just because they have to win. But that is a little simplistic and totally dismissive of the facts on offer.

Croatia are a good side. Poland are a poor side by comparison. The desire to win this game, or not, may not cause enough of a power-shift to effect the result.

The markets do look interesting it has to be said. The 'gut-feeling' is for a tight, low scoring game as the Poles fail to breach a decent Croatia defence - and there is enough evidence available to back up this claim.

Get stuck into Betfair as there looks to be some good value about this match.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, football stats