Match 20 - Poland v Croatia / Tareq Quiroz / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Now we are down to the tricky business that is predicting how the final group games will pan out. There is a common school of thought that believes that this is a game fraught with danger punting-wise.

Whilst that can be true I am of the thought that it actually gives you a better idea as there are more facts to hand than in the first couple of games. We know the permutations and what is at stake, so all we need to do is interpret the situation correctly and make our play.

Croatia's win over Germany in the second round of group games has given them the huge advantage of knowing they have won Group B no matter what happens in the final group games. Slaven Bilic can take his team into their Monday night clash with Poland safe in the knowledge that he can make a few changes and give a few of his fringe players a run out with no really negative consequences. Sure, some might say that there could be some loss of momentum if they lose but I am sure Bilic would dismiss that theory.

As it stands in Group B, Poland could still qualify for the quarter-finals should they beat Croatia and get a lot of help from Austria. They cannot influence events with the other game so Leo Beenhakker will have to make sure that his troops are fully concentrated on the job in hand. Croatia will certainly be missing several of their top stars and the replacements will I am sure be eager to impress. It all makes for an intriguing encounter in Klagenfurt.

The Match Odds clearly shows a swing towards Poland for this match in light of the circumstances. I totally understand the reasoning behind the market position but logic is only workable if the team is capable of carrying out the plan. I don't think that Poland are good enough to beat a Croatian side that is definitely weakened but by no means a pushover outfit. I feel confident that Croatia will be the team who creates the chances and they are certainly worth a look in the Asian Handicap market. The middle line is the -0 option, which essentially is a market that has the draw as no bet. Back Croatia at [2.16] on this line and you are unlikely to be disappointed.

There is every chance that this is going to be another game full of goals. Croatia are not a team who like to be involved in boring games and they will be well suited by the likely match scenario of Poland coming out on the offensive. That will play right into Slaven Bilic's hands, as his team are experts on the counter attack. I think Polish hopes may be deflated quite early on with a first half strike from the Croats. If that is the case then don't expect a fight-back from Poland and you may well see a comfortable win for Croatia. As good a place to capitalise on that theory is in the Half Time/Full Time market throws up tempting odds of [5.9] on Croatia/Croatia.

With so many potential changes to the starting line-ups it is not that easy to see exactly where the goals are going to come from. Poland may well leave out star striker Smolarek as he really hasn't fired yet and you can be sure that Olic and Modric will miss out for Croatia. With Olic almost certainly missing then it would be no surprise to see Ivan Klasnic start for Croatia, the Werder Bremen hitman has bags of talent and I can certainly see him netting on Monday night. Get on him at [3.75] in the To Score market would be my recommendation.

Earlier in the tournament I alluded to the overreaction of some of the Croatian players when even slightly touched. This has been evident in both their opening games and I can see no reason for it to come to an end here. This kind of behaviour inevitably leads to cards and as such backing 9pts and Above in the Bookings Odds market is a must bet.

We have all got our own ideas of how these final group games will work out and how much tactical manoeuvring we will see from coaches. One thing is for sure there will be heartache for some and elation for others. Bring it on.

Tags: Croatian football, Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Klasnic