Match 19 - Austria v Germany / Dan Fitch / 15 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The English contingent made their loyalties known as we celebrated Croatia's goals wildly, proving that we are willing to forgive those that knock us out of European Championship qualifying, but not those that have knocked us out of semi-finals.

The Germans are old friends, best demonstrated by their famous match in the 1982 World Cup. With a 1-0 win for West Germany ensuring that both sides would qualify for the knockout stages, the Germans took a 1-0 lead after ten minutes. For the rest of the game the Germans and Austrians just passed the ball around aimlessly, chatted between themselves, played cards and generally mucked about. I think Karl Heize Rummenigge even started up a barbeque around the centre spot.

Germany will win this fixture again, but on this occasion it won't be prearranged. This time, it'll be due to the fact that Austria are pretty useless and that the Germans will be desperate to get back to winning ways, having had their noses bloodied by Croatia.

Croatia v Germany was a rip roaring game, made all the better for the fact that I watched it in a pub that was full of German lawyers. The English contingent made their loyalties known as we celebrated Croatia's goals wildly, proving that we are willing to forgive those that knock us out of European Championship qualifying, but not those that have knocked us out of semi-finals.

Germany were unlucky with the deflection for the second goal, but overall looked very poor in defence and uninspired upfront. Just when I was musing that things couldn't get any worse for Germany, Schweinsteiger got himself needlessly sent off and banned for the Austria game.

Which was a pity, because Schweinsteiger had looked lively, having come on as a sub and merited a starting place against Austria, ahead of the ineffective Mario Gomes. This would have allowed Podolski to move into the centre, where as the man in form, he could do more damage.

Meanwhile, Austria had plenty of chances against Poland, but lacked the finishing power to make them count. In the end it was Howard Webb who had to bail Austria out, when he awarded them a last minute penalty, after an outbreak of Greco-Roman wrestling in the box.

Webb was obeying the letter of the law, but if every referee gave a penalty whenever there was shirt pulling in the box, then there'd be a spot kick every five minutes and England would be at an even bigger disadvantage.

Austria will need such charity again to beat Germany, who historically get the better of the Austrians and break the 2.5 goals mark whilst they're at it. Germany travelled to Austria for a friendly as recently as February. They won that match 3-0, with the currently misfiring Klose and Gomes both on target.

The last four matches between the two sides have all broken 2.5 goals and averaged out at a massive five goals per game. Germany have won each of these games, proving that this is one friendship where the benefits seem to be decidedly one-sided.

The last round of group games in the European Championships, tend to produce a high number of goals. Seven of the eight final groups games in 2004 broke 2.5 goals. There were five in 2000 and in 1996 there were six instances of overs.

Historically there are always more goals in the last round of games, than either the first or second. In 2004 the first games averaged 2.1 goals, with 2.5 goals in the second games and 3.4 in the last games. In 2000 the first averaged 3, with 1.75 in the second and again 3.4 in the last. 1996 produced an average of 1.6 in the first game, 2.1 in the second and 3.1 in the last.

Proof, if proof be needed, that all good things come to those that wait. The price of overs is pretty good also, available at [1.85] compared to [2.14] for unders. Austria will start with plenty of verve, but once the Germans get their noses in front, expect an avalanche of goals.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Schweinsteiger