Match 19 - Austria v Germany / Dave Farrar / 15 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Match Odds

A chance to knock out Germany and progress to the quarter finals at their expense. This scenario would have been beyond the wildest dreams of Austrian fans before the tournament started, and I have to be honest and admit that I expected Austria to be eliminated before their final game

They have overperformed and while they're still outsiders, I hope that Josef Hickersberger tells his players to enjoy the occasion and play with freedom. That is their best chance of causing an upset. It's probably a game to enjoy, rather than one on which to risk high stakes, although there's an argument to be made that Germany could be value at a short price.

Pre tournament you'd certainly have taken them to win easily here. And yet they were so poor against Croatia that it's hard to be too enthusiastic about the Germans. They seemed disjointed and unhappy and they must pull themselves together here and outclass Austria. The Germans' big problem is in their defence. Marcell Jansen had a nightmare against Croatia, but his injury only confirms the change that Jogi Low would have made anyway. He surely must play the defensive minded Arne Friedrich at right back, switch Phillip Lahm across to the position in which he's probably the best in the world, and hope that his centre backs Metzelder and Mertesacker play like two highly rated international footballers, rather than the pair of clowns on roller skates that they resembled against Croatia.

Michael Ballack and Torsten Frings must win the midfield, and they must set the tempo for their teammates. Ballack was singled out for criticism in the German press after the Klagenfurt debacle, and I can't remember him looking less convincing in the national team. I think that he underestimated the challenge that Croatia might pose, but he won't make that mistake again.

With the captain leading from the front, Germany are likely to get to the quarter finals and set up a titanic match against Portugal. Austria deserve credit for huge overachievement thus far, but I can't see them being good enough to get anything from Germany. They were comfortably brushed aside in a friendly earlier on this year, and that is more than likely to happen again. For reasons of value, though, I can't possibly recommend Germany at [1.41] and won't be playing in the "Match Odds" market.

Correct Score

When these two teams met in February of this year, Germany started sluggishly, but scored late goals to win 3-0. A similar situation is likely here. There will be pressure on Germany to take control early on, but Austria will make it hard for them and get men behind the ball. The Polish defence was tailor-made for Germany's style, Austria's less so. Once Germany get the lead, the Austrians will be forced out, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same scoreline that the teams produced in February, 3-0 to Germany.

First Goalscorer

Germany's strikers are in such poor form that there can't be any value in putting one of them forward as First Goalscorer. Michael Ballack is one of those players who tends to answer criticism with performances, and I fancy him to be the man who steers Germany into the quarter finals by opening the scoring. The bonus of backing Ballack in this market is that he is able to score all kinds of goals, and he should give us a run for our money at [8.0]

Half Time

It takes a small leap of faith to back the draw at half time here, but that was the scoreline in the February friendly at the interval, and Germany won't want to take risks against a team that they'll be confident of beating over 90 minutes. You can back the half time draw at [2.64] and the half time 0-0 scoreline at [3.0]. Those prices are there because of the prevailing view that Germany will win handsomely. I'm not so sure it will be all that convincing.

Corners

Germany's last game produced 14 corners and Austria's threw up 17. This match could be as open as both of those and, with both teams liking to create from out wide, and with neither defending those areas particularly well, I'll take a chance on a high corner count here, and, rather than lay 9 or under, advise backing 13 or over at around [3.4].

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Michael Ballack