Match 19 - Austria v Germany / Matthew Walton / 15 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The pre-tournament favourites find themselves in a spot of bother going into this match. Of course, you'd still expect them to qualify for the next phase but up against Austria - enthusiastic and unpredictable co-hosts - there's certainly no room for complacency.

Joachim Low's side were 'efficient' in their first match win over Poland but their limitations were exposed by Croatia last time out. That 2-1 defeat said much about their inflated position as outright favourites and re-affirmed the view this tournament is a very open contest.

Austria, fortuitously to some, were thrown a lifeline against Poland with a late penalty but in that match, as in the opening game against Croatia, popular comment has been 'they're not as bad as we thought they were'. Is a surprise therefore on the cards?

Well, if ever you wanted a team to do a job and get a result it's probably Germany you'd pick. However, they can't be gung-ho in this match, Austria do present a threat and should the underdogs score first then we'll see a cracking match. The question is, will we?

Let's see what the statistics say.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Austria v Germany - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Austria - P41 W15 D10 L16 F60 A65, clean sheets 13/41 (31%)
Germany - P65 W39 D17 L9 F118 A49, clean sheets 33/65 (50%)

Oh, dear. Austria don't appear to bring much to the party. A win percentage of 36% is the lowest in the tournament, a loss rate of 39% the highest. Just 31% clean sheets as well. Germany win all those categories hands down. They score 1.96 goals/game and concede 0.95 goals/game. True, they don't win a massive percentage of matches as their draw ratio is quite high (30%) but that seems the only weakness in their data.

Austria v Germany - Match Facts

Once again crumbs of comfort are hard to find for supporters of the co-hosts. A rather shambolic record against Germany and a recent set of results which are best forgotten. That 3-0 win in March is just a final nail in the coffin for form students looking for anything other than a German win. It looks like one-way traffic with Austria standing right in the middle of the road!

Josef Hickersberger, the Austrian coach, has done the best he can but still his side come up short. Austria have lost 46% of their games under his control prompting the question, is it him or them whose to blame?

And, just to add to Austria's troubles, Joachim Low's reign has seen the 10 year figures for the national side improve even further. Germany have won 70% of their games whilst he has been in charge and have a concession rate of a mere 0.66 goals/game.

Austria v Germany - Market Analysis

Outright result - the only logical call is for a German win. The only question which you then need to answer is whether the price [1.39] is value? Even winning 20 of 34 previous meetings with Austria would only make them about [1.72]. The draw at [5.0] is similarly skinny. Only Austria at [11.0] are over-priced on those past encounters. Basically, this is a poor value market.

Correct Score - we can avoid Germany in the outright market due to bad value but still support them in this category (value is different in each different market). Germany to win 2-0 [7.0] and 3-0 [10.0] are possible options but even these don't scream value as everybody expects them to win in the first place. Austria are capable of nicking a goal and maybe the 3-1 result [13.5] is one to consider as well.

First Goalscorer - Lukas Podolski [6.8] still looks the most potent German weapon. Will he score for a third straight game? That is a concern. Torsten Frings [21.0] is offered as an alternative at a fair price.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - very hard to go for anything other than the 'over' but the price [1.25] isn't one to excite. Germany score, Austria concede and their history is littered with high scoring matches. It's the call but the price certainly isn't as exciting as the match could prove to be.

Conclusion

Austria could cause a massive shock in this game. However, the facts say they won't.

To win this game they must overcome a massive head-to-head deficit as well as correcting a recent pattern of poor defending and defeats. It might happen but the data firmly points to Germany getting the job done.

As ever, an interesting match to follow on Betfair. Even in tight markets you'll find the extra percentage points here and there which do stack up over the course of time. The win and 'over' market stand out in particular in this respect. All in all, make sure you get more than your fair share of the value.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, football stats, Joachim Low