Match 19 - Austria v Germany / Editor / 15 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Half-Time

In the past decade Austria have played six competitive games at home to teams ranked in the top 20 and have trailed at HT in 5/6 (with one draw), conceding in all six and avoiding a HT deficit only in the one game where they scored in the first half. Against teams ranked in the top 10, they are W0-D1-L3 at HT. They have trailed 1-0 at HT in both games so far in this tournament.

Half-Time

In the past decade Austria have played six competitive games at home to teams ranked in the top 20 and have trailed at HT in 5/6 (with one draw), conceding in all six and avoiding a HT deficit only in the one game where they scored in the first half. Against teams ranked in the top 10, they are W0-D1-L3 at HT. They have trailed 1-0 at HT in both games so far in this tournament.

Austria's high concession rate is a major handicap, with Germany W14-D2-L1 when scoring in all competitive internationals under Jurgen Klinsmann/Joachim Low (W11-D1-L0 when scoring in the first half). In five away internationals under Low, they are W4-D1-L0 at HT, scoring every time. In all away games in the past decade against teams ranked outside the top 20, their HT record is W9-D8-L1, scoring in the first half in 12/18 and conceding in just 5/18. When they have scored in the first half in those games, they are W9-D3-L0 at HT.

Germany to lead at HT [1.87] is strongly indicated, with the main doubt being whether they will go all-out for victory from the start.

HT/FT

In the past decade Austria have not won in six attempts at home to teams ranked in the top 20 (W0-D2-L4) and their high concession rate in the first half means that the most common outcome has been L-L (4/6), with one D-L and one L-D.

In five away internationals under Low, Germany have had four W-W and one W-D (1-1 in Cyprus). W-W (8/18) has also been the predominant outcome in Germany's 18 away games in the past decade against teams ranked outside the top 20, followed by D-D (four) and D-W (three). In the nine games in that category when they have led at HT, they have had eight W-W and one W-D.

With a Germany HT lead most likely on the figures, the Germany W-W [2.06] merits consideration as an odds-against alternative to the straight win, though again the doubt is whether they will be pushing for the win from the outset.

Austria clean sheet

It is more than a decade since Austria won a competitive international against a team ranked in the top 20, and since then they are W0-D2-L9 in all competitive games against top-20 teams, conceding every time (10/11 times in the first half). The highest-ranked country that failed to score against them in a home international in the past decade was Belarus.

In the past decade Germany have scored in 15/18 competitive games on the road against teams ranked outside the top 20.

It is very difficult to see Austria shutting out Germany, though the odds on the co-hosts not to keep a clean sheet [1.11] are predictably short.

Germany clean sheet

Germany have conceded in 3/5 away internationals under Low. In the past decade they have kept a clean sheet in half of their 18 competitive games on the road against teams ranked outside the top 20.

In their past two qualifying campaigns, Austria have scored in 8/9 at home, failing to score only against the Netherlands (then ranked five) in qualifying for Euro 2004, though their only goal in this tournament was Ivica Vastic's last-minute equaliser from the penalty spot against Poland.

It is punters' choice in this market, with both options available at 1.95. Germany are not rock-solid in this type of match-up, yet Austria have yet to score from open play in this competition. As the market indicates, it is very difficult to split the two options.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings,

href="https://www.statsonsport.com/en/1/fbeuro08rankings.mxs">click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Germany v Austria