Match 19 - Austria v Germany / Robert Hughes / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

In the 1982 World Cup, Austria and West Germany were accused of contriving the result of their final group match, to ensure that they both qualified for the next stage. There can be no question of any such controversy this time around, however, as Austria must win to have any chance of qualifying, and Germany will only be safe if they avoid defeat.

In the 1982 World Cup, Austria and West Germany were accused of contriving the result of their final group match, to ensure that they both qualified for the next stage. There can be no question of any such controversy this time around, however, as Austria must win to have any chance of qualifying, and Germany will only be safe if they avoid defeat.

Austria were somewhat unfortunate to come away with only a draw against Poland, despite having to rely on a last minute penalty to secure their point. If they had been more clinical in front of goal, they could easily have been 3-0 up by half time. This lack of finishing quality will obviously concern coach Josef Hickersberger, and the main dilemma he faces is how best to use veteran forward Ivica Vastic.

The 38-year old came off the bench to score the equaliser against Poland, and also looked dangerous when he came on in their first game. He seems to be the only reliable finisher among the Austrian forwards, but will he play from the start, given that he is unlikely to last the 90 minutes - or will Hickersberger risk leaving him on the bench again and hope he can have an impact late on? Whatever the coach's decision, Vastic seems certain to feature at some point, and looks an interesting option at [6.2] in the To Score market. 20-year old Martin Harnik has missed a number of chances so far, but if you fancy him to finally find the net, he can be backed at [5.7]. If this turns out to be a tight game, it may be settled by a set-piece or even a penalty, so Austrian captain and free-kick taker Andreas Ivanschitz might interest you at [8.0].

German confidence will have been shaken by their defeat to Croatia, during which they were unable to provide a consistent service to their forwards. The normally deadly Miroslav Klose has yet to score in the competition, but can be backed at [2.16] to break his duck against Austria. All of Germany's goals so far have been scored by Lukas Podolski, and he is [2.6] to add to his tally in this match. Young striker Mario Gomez, scorer of 19 goals in the Bundesliga last season, has looked out of sorts in both matches, and may be replaced by Kevin Kuranyi, who is available at [2.72], or even Oliver Neuville, who has a habit of scoring vital goals, at [4.5].

There is a danger for Germany that they may find themselves caught between their usual positive approach and settling for the draw that would see them through. However, as Austria will need to abandon their normal defensive tactics and go all out for a win, this should leave gaps for their opponents, and the likes of Klose, Podolski and Ballack are more than capable of exploiting them, so I would not expect this game to be short on goals.

In the Asian Handicap market, Germany -1.0 is at [1.73] and looks about right. As mentioned before, Germany will progress if they draw. Even if they are a goal up they won't be desperately looking for more goals but by the same token, an early goal could completely take the stuffing out of Austria and the floodgates could open. The prices on the market are probably about right so it's a market best left alone.

Austria will probably be more tired than their opponents, having desperately chased the game against Poland, knowing that if they failed to score, they were out.

Therefore they may well fade away in the second half (as they have a recent history of doing). With this in mind, when looking at the Half Time / Full Time market, it might be worth considering Draw / Germany at [4.9].

Austria have picked up five bookings in their two matches, while Germany have collected three, plus the only red card so far in the competition. During qualification, the Germans had only 1.25 bookings per game, so I would therefore normally be considering 6-8 points at [2.2] in the Bookings Odds market.

However, referee Manuel Mejuto Gonzalez booked four players in his first match (France v Romania), and also showed yellow cards at an average of 4.71 per game in La Liga last season, so you might also want to look at 9 points and above, at [1.8].

Meanwhile, the Booking Index for this match is currently around 51-52.

Tags: Austria v Germany, Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 odds