Match 18 - Turkey v Czech Republic / Dan Fitch / 14 June 2008 / Leave a comment

This is the stage of the tournament when the group stages can effectively resemble a knockout match. Turkey v Czech Republic is just that, even down to the fact that if the game is drawn, penalties will be taken.

There has never been a penalty shoot out in the group stage of a major tournament before. We know this because if it had occurred before, then England would have already conspired to be eliminated via this route.

With Turkey and the Czechs sharing an identical record, then a draw will give us the penalty shoot out that all neutrals will relish. It does beg the question as to whether one, or both of these sides (but let's face it, probably just Turkey) will be happy with the lottery of penalties to take them through.

Suddenly my sweepstake pick of Turkey, doesn't seem quite so useless, though I admit it is still fairly so. Turkey find themselves back in with a chance of progression following their last minute winner against Switzerland, in a bizarrely entertaining game.

The Turks did brilliantly to get a result, as the freak weather made it impossible for them to play their passing game, with the ball sticking in the mud like your feet on a filthy nightclub floor. Thanks to the poor finishing of the Swiss, they hung in at 1-0 and made the necessary substitutions to give them some more direct options, which eventually paid off.

All this and the reappearance of Gordon Strachen's lapelled, leather jacket. It was almost too much excitement for me to take. Obviously, having seen Strachen in his leathers before the game, I was worried that the inclement weather would ruin said garment, but Gordon seemed dry enough when he came out for the second half and must have had somewhere to shelter.

The Czechs were unlucky to lose by such a margin to Portugal, having had plenty of chances. It will be interesting to see if they stick with just one up front, or pair Baros and Koller in a game that they need to win.

Karel Bruckner's men traditionally end with goals. Two out of their three final group games since 1996 have broke 2.5 goals and even their one failure in 2000 ended in a 2-0 victory over Denmark.

There have been six matches since Euro 96 in which two sides have met in the last game, having both been involved in a game of over 2.5 goals in their second match. In total, four of these final matches have resulted in overs. Overall, 72% that break 2.5 goals in match two, do so again in match three.

In general the last group game does tend to provide a plethora of goals. Seven of the eight final groups games in 2004 broke 2.5 goals. In 2000 it was five and in 1996 there were six instances of overs.

There have been four matches played between Turkey and the Czechs, with every one breaking 2.5 goals. Admittedly, these were all friendlies, but an average of 4 goals per game is a definite reason to be cheerful and another for Ian Dury to add to his list.

Turkey looked a lot more dangerous when they introduced Semih Senturk in the second half and having scored, he stands a good chance of retaining his place. The Turks are often guilty of over playing, particularly in the attacking third and the option of a player with good aerial ability would help them to mix things up a bit.

Unders is the overwhelming favourite at [1.57], with overs at [2.7]. I think this is too short a price and that overs should therefore be considered with a view to trade. Both teams are likely to play open football from the off and only if the game is level late on, will the temptation be there to play out for penalties.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Jan Koller