Match 18 - Turkey v Czech Republic / Dave Farrar / 14 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Both teams improved immeasurably after their first game but achieved differing results: Group A winners Portugal beat Czech Republic 3-1 while Turkey won the tournament's most exciting match as the rain teemed down in Basle with a dramatic late winner from Arda Turan to knock out hosts Switzerland.

So going into this one, Turkey and the Czechs have the same points (3), the same goal difference (-1), and have scored the same number of goals (2).

But there is one key difference and that is momentum: Turkey's late match-winner came in a game when everything seemed to have conspired against them, with the weather and a Turkish-born player scoring Switzerland's opener (set up by Derdiyok, another player of Turkish descent). Coach Fatih Terim, looking dapper in an open-necked shirt as the biblical storm poured down, changed his strategy in the second half and, in bringing on Semih Senturk and Mehmet Topal, turned the game around.

I always thought Turkey would come through this group and nothing I have seen ­ even their 2-0 defeat to Portugal ­ has made me change my mind. There is a lot of talk that the game will go to penalties if it's tied after 90 minutes: even though Volkan Demirel was Fenerbahce's penalty shoot-out hero against Sevilla in the Champions League, only one Turkey player actually
took a spot-kick in that game: and that was the Brazilian-born Mehmet Aurelio. The Turks should also beware the Czechs' shoot-out record: they have won three out of three in major competition, and scored 20 out of 20 penalties. "We have been practicing our spot-kicks but we hope it doesn't come to that," said Karel Bruckner.

Historically the Czechs have the upper hand, having won 4-1, 3-0, and 4-0 in previous meetings: but this momentum factor cannot be discounted, especially as Turkey continue to be under-rated in the markets. The Turkey/Turkey half-time/full-time price is [7.2], with the draw/Turkey at [8.2] ­ they seem generous prices for a side that gave Portugal more of a scare than their opponents. Perhaps that makes the Asian Handicap market a safer option: you can back Turkey at +0.5 goal, which has the draw after 90 minutes on your side, at [1.71.]

However, don't forget that it was the Czechs who were the team that scored against Portugal. Karel Bruckner replaced Jan Koller with Milan Baros for that game, and with some doubt over which solo forward will start in attack, there seems little value in their prices of [3.5]. Instead, I would stick with Libor Sionko, who has looked lively in his two appearances, at [4.8] or slightly better.

Much has been expected of Nihat and Tuncay but both Turkish strikers have struggled so far, perhaps burnt out by their excellent domestic campaigns. They are [3.4] and [5.0] respectively to score but the price that jumps out is the [8] for the hero against Switzerland, Arda Turan. Arda was brilliant in that game and, along with Semih [3], helped change the outlook of Group A. And although Gokdeniz Karadeniz did not excel in his first outing at the tournament, he has been in great form for surprise Russian leaders Rubin Kazan, and is an intriguing [8.0] to score.

With the stakes so high, and neither team afraid of making tough challenges when required, the bookings index is worth a look. Designated referee Peter Fröjdfeldt showed four yellow cards in Holland's 3-0 win over Italy but this could be a spiky encounter, perhaps reflected in the [1.5] in the 9pts-and-above price.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Turkish football