Match 16 - Greece v Russia / Matthew Walton / 14 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The defending champions were more than a little disappointing in their first match with Sweden. They will have to improve. Russia were similarly poor against Spain. They must improve.

For Russia, a route to the QFs will probably entail a win here against Greece and then a showdown with Sweden in the group finale in Innsbruck on Wednesday. Even despite that 4-1 drubbing by Spain, Guus Hiddink's men still have a shot at progressing.

As for Greece, their future involvement in these finals is harder to predict. One would have to see them win here and perhaps face a Spanish side in their last group match who have already qualified and so take it easy. Can they rely on this fact? Not really.

But, final matches aside, here in Salzburg tonight one side needs to register a win. The draw will be of little use to either Greece or Russia and that should ensure an open game and one which could very well get Betfair buzzing with activity!

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Greece v Russia - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Greece - P57 W31 D10 L16 F74 A54, clean sheets 27/57 (47%)
Russia - P61 W33 D14 L14 F108 A60, clean sheets 25/61 (40%)

In the Sweden match, Greece's performance highlighted their two major failings. They score too few (1.29 per goals/game) and they concede too many (0.94 goals/game). As for Russia, they had a bad night at the office against Spain. However, it's still a fair observation that they don't keep too many clean sheets (40%) and they do, in general, concede too many goals (0.98 goals/game).

Greece v Russia - Match Facts

It will be Guus Hiddink who can take most from the head-to-head meetings of these two. Russia have won (63%) of previous meetings and won their most recent clash - strangely in the last European Championships before Greece went on to win the tournament! Greece have only beaten Russia in Greece and have a vastly inferior goal difference throughout their 19 meetings. Greece 12, Russia 37.

Hiddink has created a decent Russian side. The lapse against Spain was simply out of character for a team who generally keep things pretty tight (they had the joint best defensive record in qualifying but scored less than Croatia, England and Israel).

Greece, sadly, have only shown their Euro 2004 win to be something of blip in the formbook. Otto Rehhagel might be a national hero but abroad his side score at barely a goal/game and concede at more than a goal/game - and, internationally, that's not good.

Greece v Russia - Market Analysis

Outright result - even if we take Euro 2004 with a pinch of salt (and Russia beat Greece there anyway) the head-to-head record says that Russia [2.20] has to be the bet. Russia have won 3 and drawn 3 of their last 6 matches and look a more potent outfit. Greece at [3.8] might well draw support but that has little statistical foundation. The draw [3.45] has a better claim but even that is just passed over for the Russia win.

Correct Score - Russia keep it tight, Greece don't. Neither side looks particularly potent up front. A Russia win will most likely come via the odd goal (unless Greece prove even weaker than first thought). As such the Russia 1-0 [7.2] and 2-1 [11.0] have the most appeal. It could very well be a tight, nervy game.

First Goalscorer - Roman Pavlyuchenko [6.4] is Russia's man of the moment and has to head their lists. He's scored 6 in 17 matches including one against Spain the other night. The other option would be Dmitri Sychev [8.6] who is another live runner in this market.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - with 8 of their last 10 meeting being 'over' plus a total of 49 goals in 19 previous encounters (2.57 goals/game) and both were 'over' in their first matches - this has to be the logical call at [1.55] as neither side can sit back if they're losing.

Conclusion

Lose this match and you're on your way home so both sides will be fully wound up for this one.

Sometimes that creates a classic, more often it makes for a dour struggle. Mind you, the quality of the game and the size of your profits don't always go hand-in-hand. Often it's the open, free-scoring matches which are the hardest to call.

The data points to a narrow Russian win, Greece sent packing and a thrilling group finale. Will this happen? We'll let it all play out on the exchange during this pivotal Group D clash and hopefully make a tidy profit in the process.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Guus Hiddink