Match 16 - Greece v Russia / Dan Fitch / 13 June 2008 / Leave a comment

This is another game that doesn't exactly promise to be a barrel of laughs, but hopefully the desperate circumstances of both teams might make them do something crazy. Either that or we can hope for some extreme weather conditions, which so enlivened Switzerland v Turkey.

Watching that game made you realise that UEFA were so loathe to have it called off, that literally any eventuality could occur and the players would be told to play on. If the big man with the white beard is reading this blog, then my vote is for a plague of locusts for this match.

The Russians got spanked by Spain, but at least had the gumption to give it a go and had plenty of chances. Greece however, showed a typical lack of ambition against Sweden and were still beaten by a comprehensive score.

One can't help but think that if both teams had adopted the other's game plan, then they might have now been in a healthier position. The fact that they didn't is all the more reason to hope for the Russians to knock out Greece.

I'm sorry Greece, but when we have to endure the misery of supporting England, it makes it all the more galling when a nation like yourselves manage to win the European Championships, with players not even fit to lace the boots of Graham Taylor's vintage of 1993.

I understand that a team has to play to its strengths and you'll never win anything playing like the Harlem Globetrotters, but football is one of the few sports that can transcend the limitations of its physical nature and actually resemble something quite beautiful. We live in an already ugly world. Is it too much to ask for artistry to flourish and triumph in football?

It will be interesting to see how the Russian's react to conceding so many against Spain. Their confidence will surely be dented and it has surely put pay to any notions of repeating their Eurovision success on the football stage.

Since Euro 96 there has only been one previous instance of a team conceding four goals or more in the first match, namely Bulgaria's 5-0 loss to Sweden in 2004. The good news for Russia is that their next game didn't break 2.5 goals. The bad news is that the Bulgarians lost 2-0 to Denmark.

Some brighter news for Russia is that they were the only side to beat Greece in Euro 2004, as they overcome the 2.5 goal barrier with a 2-1 win. In total there have been eight encounters between the sides, with four featuring more than 2.5 goals, averaging at exactly 2.5 goals per game. Interestingly, three out of these four matches which broke 2.5, came in competitive matches rather than friendlies.

There have been two instances in the last three European Championships, of teams that both lost their first matches, playing each other in the second match. Neither broke the 2.5 goal barrier, though the Turkey and Switzerland game did buck this trend.

Guus Hiddink branded his defenders naïve for the amount of space they left, for Villa and Torres to terrorise them with their pace. Ultimately though, he has a very average squad of players to choose from and drafting in the leaden Berezutsky brothers is unlikely to change things. The Russian squad features just one player from outside their domestic league. Even given the strides the Russian league has made of late, this is a damning indictment on the squad's quality.

But will the Greeks show enough ambition to take advantage of lax Russian defending? You'd have to think so. With Spain to come in the last match, this might be the only game that Greece can realistically win, so perhaps we will all be surprised (or perhaps I'm just clutching at straws).

Under 2.5 goals is the [1.56] favourite, with overs at [2.66]. All reasonable logic says that unders is the way to go, but for some reason (perhaps the hangover from the celebratory alcohol drunk as a toast to Lee winning The Apprentice) I've an inkling that there could be goals in this.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Guus Hiddink