Match 16 - Greece v Russia / Alsy / 13 June 2008 / Leave a comment

As the first week of Euro 08 draws to a close, few will deem the tournament anything but a fantastic success so far. We've had Turkish delight, a Dutch master class, an Ibrahimovic goal, a biblical downpour, bizarre (and apparently legal) offside rulings, solid refereeing and goals, goals, goals to boot.

It's all compelling stuff but in Salzburg, Saturday night, two of the most disappointing teams of the tournament will try to haul themselves out of a quagmire of their own making. Greece vs Russia sees two sides with zero points match up after both losing their opening games.

Russia did produce genuine moments of creativity and exposed a few minor cracks in the Spanish rearguard that a more talented side might exploit in the near future. Despite occasional highs, there were too many lows for Guus Hiddink's side to take many crumbs of comfort from their 4-1 defeat. Who knows what might have been if Konstantin Zyryanov had avoided the post and scored an early equaliser? Instead all the goals seemed to go in at one end as Russia failed their Spanish inquisition. One of Russia's best ploys was impressive wingback play but Aleksandr Anyukov needs to spend more time getting better acquainted with his centre-halves if Russia are to improve their defensive record.

Luckily for Hiddink, Russia will not have to face the twin talents of Torres and Villa for a while yet. They face defending champions Greece - a team displaying few signs of inspiration in the attacking department. They weren't numbered among the favourites this year and, so far, it's easy to see why. They faced a Swedish team containing one aging striker alongside a maverick talent who'd last scored when George Bush was still popular on home soil.

Greece and Sweden looked evenly matched but by the end of the game Sweden had secured a valuable and well-deserved victory. When Lars Lagerbäck's team intensified their attacking efforts Greece didn't attempt to match their endeavor. Instead Otto Rehhagel's team focused on keeping their defensive shape and retaining the ball. It looked like delaying tactics, felt negative and when Greece finally lost the game 2-0, few neutrals were sad with the result.

Both Russia and Greece will look to rediscover the form that has made them such formidable opponents in the past. Russia will look to sure-up a defense that let in four goals while Greece will try to play less defensively and deliver more effective attacking options.

Looking at the Half time/Full time market it's clear that few punters believe that Greece will be able to turn their fortunes around. You can back the draw/draw at [5.3] which looks great when you consider that Greece are so adept at preventing goals and seemingly inept at scoring them. I see Russia as more likely to win the game but if Greece keep the deficit down to a minimum they could shoplift a point at the death making Russia / Draw, at [18.5], very tempting.

Picking a potential scorer is a more difficult task as Greece have the defensive talent to kill the flow of the game. They will have to be more expansive going forward but are still likely to play lone striker Angelos Charisteas who can be backed at [3.6]. For Russia, I'd lean towards the more attack-minded Roman Pavlyuchenko in the absence of the suspended Andrei Arshavin. He's still learning his trade but Pavlyuchenko has already proved that he can find the next at this level so I'd back him to score at [2.9].

Both teams are likely to focus on not losing. A draw keeps slim hopes alive but a defeat means an ignominious trip back home. Looking at the Booking Odds market I think both teams will keep nothing in reserve including the art of clean tackling. I would back 9pts and above at around [1.8] in a game more likely to produce attritional football than free-flowing play.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Greece football