Match 14 - Netherlands v France / Dave Farrar / 12 June 2008 / Leave a comment

France never looked like scoring in their match against Romania, but a couple of days ago they won 7-0 in a training match against the Neuchatel Xamax Under 18 side. So everything's alright then.

MATCH ODDS

Cynicism aside, France looked so goal shy in Zurich that it's a relief to know that they can still score goals, no matter who the opposition. Betfair punters have been very quick to jump on the bandwagon and back the Netherlands into a short price to win Euro 2008, while France have drifted the opposite way, even though they didn't actually lose against Romania. Look back at their opening match at the World Cup two years ago. They were terrible in a 0-0 draw against Switzerland, then even worse against South Korea before they scraped through against Togo. And that is the team which ended up one Gigi Buffon save away from winning the World Cup.

France can't be written off. I suspect that they were keen not to lose against Romania, and went out in too negative a frame of mind. Once you start a game like that, it's very hard to raise the tempo, and France weren't able to up their game against an extremely able Romania. Victor Piturca's team perfectly fit the profile of a nightmare opening game and they lived up to that against France. Uncompromising and hard to beat, Raymond Domenech admitted afterwards that he was pleased with a draw. The Dutch style will suit France much better and I'm not sure that the Oranje victory over Italy stands up to close analysis. They scored two glorious goals, and one strange one. There's no question that they deserved to win on the night, but they weren't three goals better and they were incredibly lucky not to concede at least one goal. It would be just like the Netherlands to produce one beautiful game and then fail to qualify and I think that they are a lay at [1.2] in the "to qualify" market.

France are value to win the tournament at [15.0] and we'll know much more about both teams after this match. I'll take France to fight their way back into the tournament at the very generous price of [3.05] which is an overreaction to the opening performances of both these teams.

CORRECT SCORE

One feature of Euro 2008 so far has been the shaky defences on view. Of the winners, I wasn't convinced by Germany, Spain or Holland and it was only Portugal who looked the real deal, apart from the odd shaky moment against the Czech Republic. Both France and Romania defended really well in their match. Much was made of France's impotence, but tournaments do tend to be won from the back, and France at least are solid. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dutch fail to score. France will scrape the win that will put them back in the tournament, I take them to win by one goal to nil at [7.6].

FIRST GOALSCORER

That leads to the question of who will score. Thierry Henry will surely be restored to the starting line up now after Nicolas Anelka's performance in the first game, and his presence will lift the French players, even though he's not the player he was at Arsenal. The player who needs a lift more than any other is Karim Benzema. He wasn't able to get into the Romania match, but this should be more open, and that will suit Benzema's style. I know that I've been boring people with this for ages, but Benzema is top class and will be a superstar. That makes him value to score first at [8.0], but try to get a bigger price matched if you can.

HALF TIME

The game will be much tighter than people expect. After the way the Dutch played against Italy, you might look for an open, expansive game of goals, but I don't think so. France will keep it tighter than Italy, they will defend better, and will leave Holland searching for answers. Back the draw at half time at [2.08], and the 0-0 draw as well.

CORNERS

Another match in which to go low on the corners. France won only three in their first game, and Holland got the same. Neither had big make ups in qualifying, and so backing nine corners or under is a relatively safe play.

Tags: Euro 2008 Betting, France, Karim Benzema, Netherlands, Ruud Van Nistelroy, Thierry Henry