Match 14 - Netherlands v France / Matthew Walton / 12 June 2008 / Leave a comment

As impressive as the Dutch were in their first match against Italy, so France were disappointing in their group opener against Romania. But both nations are predictably unpredictable, so which sides will turn up for this game?

What we do know is the earlier group result from Zurich will galvanise the French if there's a definite result (especially if Italy beat Romania). That would put France up against it in their final match with Italy - unless they can win here.

Holland have more options. A win would all but see them through, a draw wouldn't be seen as a bad result and even a loss wouldn't be catastrophic given a final group match against Romania.

Whichever way you look at it, the ball is very much in France's half of the pitch as they clearly need a better showing to please fans and backers alike. Problem is, the fluid counter-attacking play of the Dutch is tailor-made for this sort of match. A fascinating tie and one which offers a number of very interesting markets on Betfair.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

France v Holland - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

France - P68 W41 D20 L7 F126 A39, clean sheets 38/68 (55%)
Holland - P66 W42 D14 L10 F137 A42, clean sheets 38/66 (57%)

Quite even statistics in most respects. France win 60% of their matches, Holland 63%. Both have nearly identical clean sheets and although France concede a few less goals, Holland score a few more. Neither side loses many as well. A match with two sides in opposition who are clearly very strong, leading to the debate as to whether they will simply cancel each other out?

France v Holland - Match Facts

There is little between these two sides, as you might expect. The last 5 matches have seen two 0-0 draws and three wins by the odd goal (two to France, one to Holland). Goals have been pretty evenly shared and there has been no particularly dominant force in their recent history.

Domenech has tightened up the French defence. A total of 33 clean sheets in 52 matches (63%) is as good as it gets. However, that comes at a price as 1.46 goals/game scored isn't that impressive. Given the flair players which France can call upon, one might expect slightly more potency in attack.

Marco Van Basten has put his own stamp on the national side. Personnel has changed but results have remained good. Just 5 defeats in 49 matches (10%) and a healthy win ratio of 67%. Not a side to be taken lightly.

France v Holland - Market Analysis

Outright result - A match where any one of three results is possible. But, ask yourself, would the Dutch be [2.7] favourites for this match had it not been for the Italy game? No. Are the French less likely winners [3.05] purely because of the Romania match? Yes. But you can't price up a game on the basis of one result for each side. That's no basis. You have to use more data - and such extra figures would suggest the draw is a decent call [3.2].

Correct Score - France must show more in attack. Holland have plenty in attack to begin with. We should see some goals here. If you fancy the draw, 1-1 [7.2] looks better than the 0-0 and should we have a winner the 2-1 either way appears better value than 1-0. A France 2-1 win [13.5] and a Holland 2-1 win [12.0] would be optional alternatives.

First Goalscorer - Much will depend upon the French line-up. Anelka may get pulled for Henry which would give the ex-Gunner a fair chance at [7.2] as he - or Ribery - will also take spot kicks. By the same token, Ruud Van Nistelrooy [6.6] has a good shout for the Dutch. Both market leaders but both, by far, their sides most potent strikers.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - as with the Italy game, a goal for either side has to galvanise the team who concede. Neither can take a 1-0 defeat and, pushing forward, they're as likely to concede again as to score themselves. The 'over' at [1.56] does seem worth the risk.

Conclusion

In the 'Group Of Death' this is a real do-or-die battle. France can't afford to lose and can barely afford to draw. Holland could be their chief executioners should they win.

A game which would grace any QF or SF, here we have two powerhouse sides clashing in what should be a classic match-up of styles. A very open betting market is the natural outcome.

Betfair seems chock-full of betting opportunities for this game. A match which really should have you playing the markets with great expectations.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, France defence