Match 14 - Netherlands v France / Ben Lyttleton / 12 June 2008 / Leave a comment

There was a slightly different reaction to the surprise results these teams picked up in their first matches: while Dutch striker Ruud van Nistelrooy hailed his "most beautiful result" in an Oranje shirt, there was much gnashing of teeth in the French camp, and suggestions in the press that coach Raymond Domenech has lost le plot.

One thing is certain: it is Holland's 3-0 scoreline over world champions Italy, rather than their performance, that is responsible for bringing the Holland price in to [6.8] to win the competition now. After all, Holland's controversial first goal may have been correctly allowed but their other two came only after Italy had almost scored themselves; first, the superb Gio cleared off his line, and then Edwin van der Sar made a great save from Andrea Pirlo's free-kick.

That first performance has also, unsurprisingly, affected the markets for this match: Holland are slightly favoured to win the game but France clearly need the victory more. I saw enough in both teams' first games to think that Holland will concede, which is why the [7.8] in the half-time/full-time market for the draw/France result looks interesting. Bear in mind that in all eight of the first round of group matches, whoever scored the first goal went on to win the game: so that first strike will be crucial.

With that in mind, it is an open secret that Domenech will change the team around before this game. We know it is always hard to second-guess the coach, but expect Thierry Henry to start in place of Nicolas Anelka, and though there is little value in his [2.5] price on the "to score" market, I do see him making a much-needed impact. Franck Ribery has drifted out to [4.5] after a disappointing first game but expect him to either move out to his preferred left-wing position, in place of Florent Malouda (with in-form Sidney Govou coming in on the right), or to play in the hole behind Henry, with Karim Benzema moved out wide. Either way, he could be the one to go with.

French experts always like to remind people that the one common thread between their three international tournament wins - in Euro 84 and 2000 and the 1998 World Cup ­ was that they fielded an authentic No 10, in first Michel Platini and then Zinedine Zidane. At the moment, they have potential No 10s in Ribery and Samir Nasri, but unless Domenech decides to pick them
as playmakers, they may struggle.

As for the Dutch, where would you start? Gio van Bronckhorst was the best left-back of the first round, and is [15.2] to repeat his goalscoring trick against France but Wesley Sneijder and Ruud van Nistelrooy are more fancied at [4.4] and [2.4] respectively. Robin van Persie, at [3.0], might start but it would be harsh to drop Dirk Kuyt, who was outstanding against Italy and
is an interesting price at [5.4].

As I am in the minority that fancy France in this game, the Asian Handicap market at Holland -0.25 at [2.24] looks tempting. There is an expectation that the second and third group-games do produce more bookings as the stakes become higher and teams fight for their lives ­ particularly in Group C, where any team can still go through.

But we have seen that officials have been happy to let some challenges go unpunished (how did Emanuel Pogatetz not get sent off in Austria's first game, for example) and Herbert Fandel is in charge for this one. The German, who was the official attacked by a Danish fan during their qualifier against Sweden, showed three yellows in the Portugal-Turkey game and with only Willy Sagnol and Nigel de Jong getting cautioned after game one, the bookings odds at 5pts-and-under, priced [4.1], is worth a look.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 odds, Ruud Van Nistelrooy