Match 13 - Italy v Romania / Matthew Walton / 12 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Were Holland that good or were Italy that bad? Were France that bad or were Romania that good? We should find out soon enough in Zurich.

Italy limp into this match on the back of a Dutch hammering and need to show their true World Cup winning colours if they are to progress to the QF's. The win is simply a must against the group's supposedly weakest side.

Romania, by contrast, merely need to replicate their performance against France. Negative to some, boring to others, defensive to all, it may not be pleasant on the eye but such a 'Greek style' approach has been proven to work in these kind of tournaments. Just think back four years!

In this match we have to see the Italians force the pace, something which they typically don't do by nature. Romania know that another controlled performance will see them in with a very real chance of progression. It worked against France, so why not here? Put these two situations together and it makes for an intriguing match in Group C.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Italy v Romania - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Italy - P72 W44 D22 L6 F120 A46, clean sheets 38/72 (52%)
Romania - P61 W36 D13 L12 F112 A48, clean sheets 27/61 (44%)

Italy average 1.66 goals/game and concede just 0.63 goals/game. Mind you, Romania score 1.83 goals/game and concede 0.78 goals/game. In short, both sides are evenly matched. The key statistic might be Italy's higher clean sheet record (53% to 44%) and given Romania's negative showing against the French will we see the Italians look to get their noses in front and then play a typical game of sitting on a lead?





Italy v Romania - Match Facts

Italy can at least draw some comfort from the head-to head statistics. They have won 10 of 14 previous encounters (71%) and each of the last four matches spread over the last eight years. Italy beat Romania in Bucharest as recently as 2001. With a goal distribution of 24 scored to 10 conceded, Italy look a clear choice to get a result. Romania have won just twice in the past 14 matches.

Donadoni must ensure the Italians rediscover their defensive steel (how big a loss is Cannavaro?) but still play with enough pace and flair to breach a stifling Romanian defence. Not an easy thing to achieve.

Victor Piturca actually has a better defensive record than Donadoni (only 0.62 goals/game) so the size of the Italian task isn't to be under-estimated. Can Romania pull off a shock? Quite possibly but they will need to execute their game plan perfectly.

Italy v Romania - Market Analysis

Outright result - Romania are big underdogs on account of their head-to-head inferiority plus the popular notion that Italy are simply the better side. We prefer to base our advice on the former consideration and that would suggest Italy to win [1.70] is the most likely outcome. With a 71% success rate on former matches and wins in each of the last four encounters, they offer a more likely winner than Romania [6.4] or even the draw [3.75].

Correct Score - Italy won 4 of 12 qualifiers 2-0 [7.4] and Romania lost their only qualifier 1-0 and a recent friendly by the same score. A 1-0 Italy win [5.9] is the market leader. These two options seem the best betting choices as (a) Italy could very keep a clean sheet and (b) should they score they could very well revert to type and defend their advantage.

First Goalscorer - Tight matches lead to possible options on dead-ball specialists, penalty takers and free kick experts. Andrea Pirlo is a contender here [14.5] at a decent price and Luca Toni (top scorer in the qualifiers) is the alternative [5.6].

Over/Under 1.5 goals - tricky. This match has the look of a tight encounter. Recent meetings have tended to suggest the 'over' but the safety first policy in this match would point to any side taking the lead simply shutting up shop. As such the 'under' [2.58] appears to have more value.

Conclusion

The result is everything in this match. Forget entertainment, this is about winning 3 points in a very tough group.

The statistics say that Italy are more likely to come out on top. They also point to this being a pretty low-scoring affair. However, of all the matches so far in the championships, this is one which appeals high in terms of Betfair value. So get stuck in to what could be a very profitable match.

Tags: Euro 2008 Betting, Euro 2008 Odds, Group C Betting, Italy, Romania