Match 12 - Austria v Poland / Dave Farrar / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

MATCH ODDS

Austria surprised many people, including me, with how close they came to getting something from their opening game against Croatia, and that will have done an enormous amount to boost their confidence.

They'll feel that with noisy home support behind them, they can get at least a draw against Poland. They will have earmarked this match as the one that gives them the best chance of escaping the tournament without being humiliated. I'm not so sure. Austria were honest and hardworking in that first game, but their apparent improvement was down more to Croatian nerves than to their own quality.

Croatia couldn't pass to each other for long periods of that first match, but even with all of the possession that they were given cheaply, Austria didn't find a way past a shaky Stipe Pletikosa. Just because they came closer than anyone thought they would, Austria's set of poor quality players haven't become a top class team in the space of a week, and they have to be opposed here.

As for Poland, I found the analysis of their performance against Germany rather curious. The terrestrial TV commentators all suggested that Germany weren't troubled, and that Jens Lehmann had little to do, but I didn't see it quite like that. Poland didn't create a lot of chances, but they were in that game with a chance for a long time, and just before Lukas Podolski got his second goal they were looking threatening. I've written here before about just how much I rate Leo Beenhakker, and he has had plenty to overcome in the first week of the tournament, dealing with losing three players to injury and apologising for the excesses of the Polish tabloids.

Germany may have been too good, but Austria are well within Poland's range, and I trust Beenhakker to know exactly how to take advantage of the limitations of the co hosts. Poland have won the two competitive matches that these counties have played, albeit with home advantage, but they're still my selection to win here at [2.36].

CORRECT SCORE

Of the six games between these countries, three of them have finished 5-2 to Austria, but unfortunately with regard to form, they were all achieved by the 1930s Wunderteam of Mathias Sindelar. Having been on the wrong end of a 2-0 scoreline in their first game, I can see Poland being two goals better than Austria here. They can trouble the Austrians from out wide and that Beenhakker will have them primed for a much better defensive performance. A 2-0 Polish win at [13.0] is the bet.

FIRST GOALSCORER

There's no need to desert Ebi Smolarek in this market. He had a quiet game against Germany, but still had enough about him to get in behind the German back two and score a goal that was wrongly disallowed. He is a classy finisher and was prolific in qualifying, and the price for him to score early, as he did throughout the qualifying campaign, is fair. I fancy Poland to win and so I'm going with Smolarek to be the star and get the first goal, at around [7.0].

HALF TIME

The idea of backing Croatia to score early and hold on against Austria worked for us in the first game, and so it's not a tactic that we should desert here. I think that Poland, for all of their injuries, played with real verve against Germany and if they do that again, then they'll get ahead early. I can't see them defending as badly as they did against Germany, and so any early goal should result in a half time lead. Back Poland to lead at half time at [3.25].

CORNERS

This is an interesting market, as I feel that Poland's three corners in the opener, and Austria's four, will drive down the price enough to have a decent bet on their being ten corners or more. Corners come about not just because teams play attacking football, but because teams can't defend from out wide well enough. Austria's answer to Croatia's wide men was to do anything to get the ball behind and temporarily out of trouble and Poland's wide men should produce the same result. There are two ways to take advantage of this. You can either back Poland in the corner supremacy market or simply lay 9 or under corners. Both would be a good option.

Tags: Euro 208 betting, Leo Benhaker, Smolarek