Match 12 - Austria v Poland / Matthew Walton / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Pointless and goalless these two sides head into their second group match in search of a Euro lifeline. And, with a draw no use to either, we should see a positive result in Vienna.

In their first match against Croatia many feared for the co-hosts but Austria came out with a fair bit of credit even despite a 1-0 loss. This time around there can be no hard luck stories, Josef Hickersberger's men must score and, ideally, win as they face Germany in their final group match.

As for Poland, they will see the win here as paramount to set up a decisive third match with Croatia next Monday. On paper, a defeat to Germany is nothing to be ashamed of but the Poles were second best on the day and will need to step up a level here.

Either way, the pressure is on both these sides to perform and a tight, defensive match will do both no good whatsoever.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data. Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Austria v Poland - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Austria - P40 W15 D9 L16 F59 A65, clean sheets 13/40 (32%)
Poland - P57 W32 D9 L16 F100 A58, clean sheets 22/57 (38%)

The key statistic to this match is the clean sheet percentage. Only 38% for Poland and just 32% for Austria. We should see goals. Tellingly, in the win column, we see Austria on 37% and Poland on 56%. The figures which matter do all point to the Poles having enough to get the job done as the Austrians offer little threat in attack and, sadly, little substance in defence.

Austria v Poland - Match Facts

Goals. A total of 33 in just 7 matches between these two nations (admittedly dating back to 1935). Given the circumstances of this game this total looks set to be increased. The two sides played in the same qualifying group for the World Cup 2006 and it was Poland who won both, scoring 3 times on each occasion.

A lot depends upon how much we read into Austria's match with Croatia. Did they hold them to a single goal or were the Croats just warming up? Croatia's general level of form would suggest the latter.

As for Poland, Beenhakker talked a good game after the Germany loss but the result was a fair one. This is a must win game for them, they have to force the pace against weaker opponents.

Austria v Poland - Market Analysis

Outright result - Poland look a reasonable price at [2.38]. Their general form and head-to-head record shows them to be superior to the Austrians and a Polish win is the most likely outcome. Even odds of [3.4] for Hickersberger's side look missable given those two defeats in 2004 and 2005. The only other option is the draw [3.45] something which neither side does with much frequency (Austria 22%, Poland 15%).

Correct Score - With the history of goals in this fixture (average of 4.71 goals/game) a correct score bet is open to much debate. Poland won 3-1 [26.0] here in 2004 and won a couple of qualifiers by this score as well. The other option is the total opposite with the Poles nicking a 1-0 win [7.2] as they also did in three qualifiers, something of a saver.

First Goalscorer - Poland share the goals around a fair bit. That said, the market leader, Ebi Smolarek, scored first in 5 of 14 qualifiers [7.0] and must have claims. Jacek Krzynowek [12.0] is another alternative in quite an open market.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - very hard to suggest anything other than the 'over' [1.59] on account of all that has been said before. One has to expect the nature of the match, as much as the form of its participants, to generate an attacking spectacle and a few goals.

Conclusion

When you play strictly on the statistics, matches like this have the habit of kicking you in the teeth every now and again. Sod's law it will be a 0-0 draw.

However, the data firmly points to a couple of good bets on Betfair for this match. Poland to win at [2.38] appears a sound call and the 'over' is similarly strong at [1.59]. Other bets could even add a bit of extra bunce on top.

This is effectively the last chance saloon for both sides as each have tough last matches, better to go out with a bang not a whimper so expect some activity in this one!

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Polish football