Match 12 - Austria v Poland / Editor / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Half-Time

Austria's 1-0 HT deficit against Croatia in their opening match was only the fifth time that they had trailed at HT in 19 competitive home games in the past decade (W10-D4-L5). Notably, however, all five HT deficits have been against teams ranked in the top 30 (W0-D3-L5 at HT against teams in that category, with Austria conceding in the first half in 7/8.

Poland also had a rare HT deficit in their opening game against Germany, trailing for only the third time in their last 18 competitive games outside Poland (W7-D8-L3 at HT). At the last World Cup they had an identical result in their first group match, trailing 1-0 at HT and losing the match 2-0, and in their other two group games they had HT draws. At major tournaments since the turn of the millennium, Poland's HT record is W1-D2-L4.

While the overall bare figures indicate that both teams have solid first-half records, Austria are much weaker against high-class opponents and rarely get to HT without conceding. With Poland W7-D3-L0 at HT when scoring in the first half in competitive games outside Poland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Poland to lead at HT [3.25] is attractive.

HT/FT

In the past decade Austria have not won in eight attempts at home to teams ranked in the top 30, and the most common outcome has been L-L (4/8), followed by D-L (2/8).

In competitive games outside Poland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Poland have a strong W10-D3-L3 FT record when not trailing at HT (the most common outcomes in those games being W-W and D-W, both five apiece). At major tournaments since the turn of the millennium, however, Poland's most common outcome has been L-L (4/7).

Poland's good chance of a HT lead also points to their W-W chance on the HT/FT [4.2]. They are W5-D2-L0 at FT after leading at HT in competitive games outside Poland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying.

Austria clean sheet

Austria have kept a clean sheet in 8/19 in competitive home games in the past decade, but the highest-ranked country that failed to score against them was Belarus. In the past decade Austria have conceded in all eight home games against teams ranked in the top 30.
Poland have scored in 14/20 competitive games outside Poland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, with 4/6 failures to score coming against teams ranked in the top 21. They have failed to score in 5/7 games at major tournaments since the turn of the millennium, though only one of those failures was against a team ranked outside the top 21 (against co-hosts South Korea at the 2002 World Cup).

Only Poland's poor scoring record at major tournaments indicates that the co-hosts might keep a clean sheet, but Austria not to keep a clean sheet [1.4] would be difficult to oppose.

Poland clean sheet

Poland's clean sheet record is not that good, with just 7/20 competitive games outside Poland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying and only one in their last six games. They have conceded in all seven games at major tournaments since the turn of the millennium.

Austria have scored in 16/19 competitive home games in the past decade, with their shutout against Croatia on Saturday their first failure to score in eight games since a 3-0 defeat by the Netherlands in a Euro 2004 qualifier. In the past decade they have scored in 5/8 at home to teams ranked in the top 30.

The figures point to the co-hosts getting on the scoresheet, though Poland not to keep a clean sheet [1.57] looks plenty short enough given that they are up against by far the worst team in the competition.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Poland clean sheet