Match 12 - Austria v Poland / Robert Hughes / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Both Austria and Poland can consider themselves unfortunate to have come away empty-handed from their opening game. Having been outplayed early on by Croatia, Austria regrouped to put their opponents under considerable pressure in the second half, while Poland enjoyed the majority of the possession after the interval against Germany, but could not turn it into real goalscoring chances.

For this crucial game, there is little room for a cautious approach - with victory essential for both teams, I'd expect a fairly lively contest with plenty of attempts on goal, although they may not have the quality to finish many of those chances off.

Both managers will be considering changes of personnel, both forced and tactical. Poland will obviously miss the injured Maciej Zurawski, their main creative force. His absence may have one positive aspect, however, in that Ebi Smolarek should now move back into the central striker's position.

He was Poland's top scorer in qualifying with nine goals, but was employed on the left of midfield against Germany, with the less mobile Zurawski down the middle, a tactic which clearly didn't work.

Should he be restored to his favoured position, Smolarek looks a decent bet in the To Score market at [2.88]. Given the need for goals, coach Leo Beenhakker may opt for two up front, in which case Southampton's Marek Saganowski seems to be the favoured option for second striker - he can be backed at [3.75]. Another goalscoring option for the Poles is the lively left midfielder Jacek Krzynowek, at [4.3], who is dangerous from long range and is also a free-kick specialist.

Austria's lack of an attacking spearhead was exposed in their first game, with forwards Roland Linz and Martin Harnik struggling to make an impact on the Croatian defence. If you're considering the To Score market, you might be better off looking elsewhere in the team for goals. Playmaker Andreas Ivanschitz, available at [5.5], is a more reliable finisher and will be a danger from free-kicks.

Ivica Vastic, the 38-year old veteran of the 1998 World Cup, looked dangerous when he came on against Croatia - he may not start this match, but if Austria need inspiration he will certainly come off the bench, so he might be worth a look at [5.0]. Meanwhile, the experienced Rene Aufhauser has a decent scoring record for a defensive midfielder (11 goals from 52 internationals), and is available at [7.0].

On the face of it, you might not expect too many bookings in this match - Poland picked up an average of 1.36 yellow cards per game in qualifying, and Austria collected just two in their 11 friendlies over the last year. However, the presence of Emanuel Pogatetz (who managed to get himself booked after only four minutes against Croatia) for Austria and the uncompromising Marcin Wasilewski for Poland, plus the high stakes involved in the match, suggest that referee Howard Webb may be kept fairly busy.

When you also consider that Webb handed out yellow cards at a rate of 3.46 per game in the Premier League last season, I would consider at least 6-8 points at [2.5], or possibly 9 points and above at [1.75], in the Bookings Odds market. Meanwhile, the Bookings Index market currently stands at around 52-55.

The Asian Handicap market offers Austria +0 & +0.5 at [1.91], or
Poland -0 & -0.5 at [1.87], suggesting a tight game which might just be edged by the Poles. I'd have to agree that while they're unlikely to run away with it, Poland's extra class and recent experience of a tough qualifying campaign (Austria have, of course, only played Friendly matches for the last two years) should give them the edge.

In recent matches, Austria have developed a habit of surrendering favourable half time positions, the worst being against Holland in March, where they led 3-1 at the interval, only to lose 3-4. It's worth noting also that Poland are apparently working under an advanced new fitness regime, which may give them the edge in terms of stamina and allow them to finish the game more strongly. With these factors in mind, when considering the Half Time / Full Time market, I'd look at Draw / Poland at [6.2] or Poland / Poland at [4.2].

Tags: Austrian football, Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting