Match 11 - Croatia v Germany / Dave Farrar / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Before his side played against Germany, the Polish coach Leo Beenhakker said with a smile that "people in Germany seem to think they've won the Euro already." After Germany's victory in their first game, that opinion seems to have extended beyond just German borders

We won't really know how good Die Manschaft is until they play against another top level side, and that could be in this match, depending on which version of Croatia turns up. Croatia must get over the absence of Eduardo and they must do it now. They've known for six months that the naturalised Brazilian would not be at the European Championships, but they played against Austria as if they still had an excuse to underperform.

If they do that again, they will be well beaten by Germany. England fans won't have recognised the stuttering Croatia which appeared in Vienna, and wondered what happened to the fluent team that humiliated them at Wembley. They weren't able to play their natural counterattacking game in that first match, and Germany's style will suit them a lot better.

I didn't think that Germany looked like the winners of Euro 2008 in their first game. Poland played into their hands by defending too high up the pitch and too badly. Slaven Bilic's players are too clever to get sucked into that, and so I don't expect Lukas Podolski to run riot again.

Having said that, Croatia were poor for the last hour of their opening match and are a hard side to judge. Bilic seemed calm enough after that scratchy opening win, and the charitable view of the Croatian performance is that nerves got the better of them and they'll be more settled for this second match.

Finally, there are some positive noises from the Croatians. They've spoken about replicating the 1998 World Cup win over the Germans, and explained how inspirational it is to have Bilic, Prosinecki and Asanovic on the bench as constant reminders of that glorious day. I felt that both Croatia and Germany were overrated before Euro 2008 started, and I feel the same now.

I won't be having a big bet in this game as I just don't trust either team. If I was forced to make a call, purely on value terms, then I would lay Germany at [1.86], and take the leap of faith that Croatia will play significantly better in Klagenfurt than they did in Vienna, and that the forward momentum of the Germans will play into Croatian hands.

CORRECT SCORE

The Croatians dream of replicating that 3-0 scoreline from 1998, but there's little chance of that, although I certainly think that there'll be goals, as both teams showed defensive frailty in the opening matches. Again, this isn't a market that I want to get too involved in, but I'll take a speculative punt at a 2-2 scoreline, which is currently trading at [24.0].

FIRST GOALSCORER

Lukas Podolski got the headlines and the plaudits, although I felt that Torsten Frings was Germany's real star in that Poland game. Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez both failed to get on the scoresheet, but even though Klose laid on the first goal, I thought that he looked shorn of confidence and really poor. Gomez, who's on the brink of a move to Bayern Munich, would be worth another chance to strike first for the Germans, but he is short at around [6.6]. Thinking back to that famous win in 1998, it was an attacking full back, Robrt Jarni, who gave Croatia the lead, and so that means that I'm giving another chance to Dario Srna. He seems to have been relieved of penalty-taking duties, which came as an unpleasant shock to those of us who backed him in the first game, but his energy and finishing ability mean that he's worth sticking with here, at a massive [27.0].

HALF TIME

Both teams led at half time in their first games, so that doesn't give us much of a steer here. There is nothing from qualifying which really points to a standout bet in this market, so as the half time draw has proved the right way to go in so many games so far, I'm sticking with that here. Given the nature of these sides, it may be 1-1 at half time rather than 0-0 as it has been so often, but the draw is the play at [2.16].

CORNERS

Rather like Germany's game against the Poles, this could be a game in which going under 9 corners is value, because of the likely price. Croatia won seven corners in their first match, but much of that can be put down to the panicky way in which Austria defended. Germany, for all of their much vaunted width and attacking play, won only four corners against Poland, and the decision to go under in Germany's first game worked, so let's try that again, and back 9 or under corners.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Podolski