Match 11 - Croatia v Germany / Dan Fitch / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The Dutch may have blown away the Italians in mind-blowing fashion, but when it comes to ominous figures lurking on the horizon, they don't come any more frightening than Germany.

Despite looking a bit shaky at the back at times, the Germans finished off the Poles in a typically clinical fashion. Full marks should go to Lukas Podolski, not just for his goals but for the muted celebrations that followed them, which probably saved his Polish relatives from getting a good kicking back home.

Speaking of relatives in far off places, the BBC took the opportunity during their coverage of Croatia v Austria to send the half-Croatian Adrian Chiles back to the old country. Chiles is a very likeable presenter, but the BBC should realise that you can have too much of a good thing. I'm not saying that Chiles is suffering from over exposure, but last week I sent him back to Kodak to be redeveloped.

I thought that Croatia would run riot against Austria having taken an early lead, but instead they took their foot off the gas and allowed the Austrian's to over power them. Eastern European teams tend to prefer football to be played like a chess game, which is the only possible explanation for Croatia's awful shirts.

But they say that the mark of a good team is to win whilst playing rubbish and Croatia certainly ticked those two boxes. Yet they will know that they will have to raise their game against the Germans.

Croatia will take heart from the way they destroyed England and the fact that there are similarities between us and Germany. Coached by the assistant to the previous coach? Check. Dodgy keeper ready to make a mess of things? Check. Two very similar midfielders that just can't gel? Erm, not really. Hapless coach trying desperately to work out the mechanics of a brolly, rather than concentrating on matching his opponent's tactical acumen? Very unlikely... Actually, this analogy doesn't work at all.

Unlike Poland, the Croats have beaten Germany before, though only once. But students of overs/unders will be more interested to learn that three out of their four encounters have beaten the 2.5 goals mark, averaging 2.75 goals per game. What's more, two of these games have taken place within the competitive environment of an international tournament.

However, over the last three European Championships there have been two second match encounters between sides that like Germany and Croatia, have both won their first games. Neither match broke the 2.5.

Statistically there is little to suggest that teams that fail to send the 2.5 toppling in their first match, will be more attacking in their second match. In 2004, 42% of teams bounced back from a low scoring match in their first game, to feature in a game of three goals or more in their second match. A more impressive 50% managed this feat in 2000, but in 1996 it was just 28%.

Probably the most decisive factor in the goals market in this game will be Germany's forward line. Eyebrows were raised when Loew shunted Podolski onto the left wing, to enable him to bring in Gomez alongside Klose. But from his wide position, Podolski was able to drift into the box unmarked for his two goals. Podolski's form on the night was fortunate, as Gomez seemed overawed and Klose wasn't his normal clinical self. Still, it only takes one of these three to click and the opposition are in trouble.

As the experts never get tired of telling us, Croatia are missing the presence of Eduardo and they may struggle to get a lot of goals in this tournament, especially against the better teams. Not that Germany's defence looked infallible, with Jansen looking raw and the two centre backs lacking pace. Lehman will also surely produce at least one clanger in this tournament.

Unders is the favourite here at [1.68], with over 2.5 goals at [2.46]. Given that both teams scored relatively early in their first games, I'd take a gamble on the overs with a view to trade.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 match previews, Germany football