Croatia v Germany: Match odds, correct score, first goal odds, over/under 1.5 goals

Match 11 - Croatia v Germany / Matthew Walton / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

After first match victories for both sides which were more about substance than style, Germany and Croatia meet in Klagenfurt for what will be the pivotal match in Group B.

Germany got the job done against Poland but the 2-0 scoreline maybe said more about their opponents than Joachim Low's side. This much more competitive match represents a better test of their credentials.

Croatia were slow out of the traps against co-hosts Austria. They were expected to win easier than the 1-0 scoreline and Slavan Bilic will hope his men make more of a statement in this match. Their realistic target will be better known after this game.

With Germany facing the Austrians in their last group match there is maybe less pressure on them, Croatia will still have to play the potentially troublesome Poles. Either side could afford to lose this game but neither will want to, that's for sure.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Germany v Croatia - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies, just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Germany - P64 W39 D17 L8 F117 A47, clean sheets 33/64 (51%)
Croatia - P65 W38 D17 L10 F111 A46, clean sheets 35/65 (53%)

A typical Germany win in the last 10 years would be via a 2-0 scoreline. That's exactly what we saw in their first group match. Croatia have a very similar profile and all that was missing from their game with Austria was that extra goal. We have the classic mixture of good attack and solid defence on either side which leaves the question hanging as to which one will come out on top?

Germany v Croatia - Match Facts

The Germans hold a distinct advantage in the previous meetings. Twice the amount of goals as Croatia and a win/loss of 5:1 is a basis for a fair amount of confidence within the German camp - as well as with backers of Germany. To be fair, three of those German wins came in 1941-42 so the figures need just a little bit of clarification. In the four recent meetings it's two German wins, one to Croatia with one draw and Croatia lead 6-5 on goals scored.

Few can argue with Joachim Low's record. Just 2 defeats in 23 games and a goals/game ratio that is impressive (2.65 for, 0.60 against). A solid and successful side.

Bilic, by the same token, has presided over a good period in Croatia's history. Blessed with a number of talented players he too has tasted defeat just twice and has a side which averages more than two goals a game (2.09) and concedes under one (0.80).

Germany v Croatia - Market Analysis

Outright result - On the data available, Germany at [1.82] are hard to see as the value bet in this market. Given a very narrow lead in the most recent head-to-heads and up against a talented and resilient side in Croatia they don't deserve to be odds-on. You can also add to this the fact that neither side 'has' to win. The value surely lies with a Croatia upset [6.0] or a logical call on the draw [3.4].

Correct Score - In a match where the result is tough to call you might well prefer to hedge your bets on this market. The 1-1 draw [7.6] has most appeal if it's a stalemate. If there's to be a positive result, Germany 2-1 makes sense [10.0] as their two wins over Croatia in recent memory have been by this score and Croatia 2-1 [25.0] offers value for the upset.

First Goalscorer - A foot in both camps makes sense in this one. For Croatia, Mladen Petric [10.0] has to fill the shoes of Eduardo whilst backers might find Lukas Podolski a bit short after his goals against Poland. Michael Ballack [9.0] still appeals as a viable alternative.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - a price of [1.49] puts this market right on the edge. It's clear to see that backers view this one with some caution. The statistical call, however, has to be the 'over'. All seven previous meetings have seen more goals and with neither side wishing to lose this game we should see an open match once the first goal goes in.

Conclusion

An interesting match as we have the popular choice, a German win, not sitting very well with the statistics on offer. At the forecast price it's impossible to call Germany 'value' for this game.

Croatia have a distinct chance of upsetting their more illustrious opponents and at [6.0] for the win or [3.4] the draw we need to look there for better options - or simply lay Germany.

Elsewhere the Correct Score and First Goalscorer markets offer some tasty odds on Betfair but the other call, strictly on the figures, is the 'over' as we should see an attractive and open game here in Klagenfurt.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, German football