Match 11 - Croatia v Germany / Editor / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

HT

Croatia have been level at HT in just over half of their tournament games since 1996 (W4-D11-L6) and their HT lead over Austria in their opening group game was their first at a major tournament since the third-place playoff in the 1998 World Cup.

Since 1994 they have been W5-D5-L5 at HT against teams ranked in the top 10, though they have had only one HT lead in the last seven games (W1-D3-L3) back to the 2002 World Cup. In all competitive games outside Croatia since 2000, they have rarely trailed at HT (W10-D14-L6), with no HT deficit in their last nine games.

Germany have not trailed at HT in their last 18 tournament games (W8-D10-L0), since being behind against Portugal in the group stage at Euro 2000, conceding a first-half goal in only 2/18. Since 1996 they are W11-D18-L3 at HT at major tournaments.

Germany have conceded in the first half in only two of their last 20 competitive games outside Germany, going back to the start of the 2002 World Cup, and haven't trailed in any of those games (an even split of HT wins and draws).

A Croatia HT lead looks unlikely and the figures indicate that a HT draw [2.16] is the most likely, though the value in the odds is marginal.

HT/FT

Croatia's most common HT/FT outcomes at major tournaments since 1996 have been D-W and L-L (both 5/21). They have won on all four occasions when they have led at HT but are winless in 12 (eight FT defeats, four FT draws) when failing to establish a HT lead. Overall, in all competitive games outside Croatia since 2000, Croatia's most common outcome has been W-W (9/30).

Since 1996 Germany's strong first-half performance at major tournaments means that three-quarters of their HT/FT outcomes have been W-W (9/32), D-W (8/32) or D-D (7/32). In competitive games outside Germany since 2000, Germany's most common outcome has been W-W (10/29).

Germany's strong first-half performance, coupled with Croatia's poor tournament record when not leading at HT, points to a Germany win, though it is difficult to choose between the Germany W-W and D-W. Croatia's high HT draw rate might tip the balance towards the Germany D-W [5.2].

Croatia clean sheet

In major tournaments since 1996, Croatia have kept a clean sheet in 8/21, though only three in their last 12 (their only tournament clean sheet against a team ranked in the top 10 was in the 3-0 quarter-final win over Germany at the 1998 World Cup). Outside their homeland, Croatia have kept a clean sheet in only 2/11 against teams ranked in the top 10.

In all competitive games outside Germany since 2000, Germany have scored in 23/29 (79%), while at major tournaments since 1996 they have scored in 25/32 (78%).

The German figures indicate that the odds for Croatia not to keep a clean sheet [1.26] are close to the mark.

Germany clean sheet

Germany have kept a clean sheet in 50% of tournament games since 1996 (16/32), including 11 of the last 18. In all competitive games outside Germany since 2000, they have had just over 50% clean sheets (15/29).

Outside their homeland, Croatia have scored in 9/11 against teams ranked in the top 10 (the only failure to score in seven games on neutral territory was the 1-0 defeat by Brazil in the 2006 World Cup).

On balance the odds in this market look about right.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy.

Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Euro 2008 statistics, German football