Match 10 - Switzerland v Turkey / Dave Farrar / 10 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Both of these teams were disappointing in their opening games, for different reasons. Switzerland because they played well and lost a game that they really ought to have won, and Turkey because, for all of their brightness, they looked short of confidence against Portugal.

How both sets of players react to defeat is the key to this game, and I like the way that the Swiss have been talking, and liked their body language in interviews. It could be argued that their home advantage is more important now than it was before the tournament started. They have been getting massive attendances for their public training sessions and have been lifted by the optimism surrounding them, despite the unfortunate injury to Alexander Frei. National optimism can apply pressure before the first game, but it can be a massive mental boost before the second. We know what to expect from Switzerland. They'll work hard, the sum will be bigger than the parts, and they'll have to rely on one of their youngsters to get goals.

Turkey are more of a conundrum. They seemed lightweight against Portugal, and there was an element of desperation in the diving of Nihat and Tuncay, both of whom looked shattered after long domestic seasons. I like Kazim Kazim' spirit, but when he is your main attacking threat, then you know you've got problems. Turkey could improve, they have a very experienced coach and clever players capable of a much higher standard of play than their opponents. I fancied them to do well before the tournament, but disliked their attitude so much in the Portugal game that I'm going with a prosaic Swiss side to reignite their hopes of a quarter final place by scraping a not very pretty win. It's not my most confident selection of the tournament, but at the prices the value bet in this market is Switzerland to beat Turkey at [2.26].

CORRECT SCORE

Our Turkish correspondent told us on Betfair Radio's Euro 2008 Marketwatch programme that he feared that his country could leave the tournament having failed to score a single goal, and when he said that both myself and my co-presenter Ben Lyttleton laughed and told him to stop being so pessimistic. Now, though, I see what he means. He spoke about Turkey's lack of conviction when they get to the big time and that was the big ingredient lacking from the first match: conviction. If they believe that they can beat Switzerland, then they have the talent and game plan to do it and set up a qualifying showdown with the Czech Republic. My feeling is that they'll come up short, and their great efforts in qualifying will come to nothing. Switzerland to win a low scoring game by one goal to nil, at [7.2].

FIRST GOALSCORER

The injury suffered by Alexander Frei is obviously a huge blow for the Swiss as he is their leading international scorer, their captain, and their one proven player at this level. His absence gives a chance to one of Switzerland's younger strikers, and I wish that Kobi Kuhn would play Eren Derdiyok, who only got six minutes in the first match, but looked strong and dangerous. If Derdiyok starts, then he is my first goalscorer selection, but if he is left on the bench as I expect, then I'll stick with my pick from the first match. Set pieces were occasionally threatening for the Swiss against the Czech Republic, and there's no reason why that will change. They're strong in the air and so I'm going, once again, for Phillippe Senderos to open the scoring.

HALF-TIME

Both of this group's opening matches were level at half time, and, while I feel that Portugal will go ahead early in the other game in this group and buck that trend, these two will take a while to figure each other out and I don't see a reason to steer you away from what is becoming a profitable bet. The half time draw at [2.02].

CORNERS

This market is very much a bet dictated by price. If you can lay nine or under at anywhere near even money, then that would be value after Turkey won five corners and Switzerland seven in their first matches, if that statistic pushes the price up a bit to nearer [3.0], then I'll leave well alone and look for better value in other games.

Tags: Eren Derdiyok, Euro 2008 Betting, Phillippe Senderos, Switzerland, Turkey