Match 10 - Switzerland v Turkey / Matthew Walton / 10 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Having suffered defeats in their first group matches both sides know that a result, of any kind, is required in this match. And a 'result' realistically means a win...

The Swiss suffered a double-blow in their first match. A 1-0 loss to the Czechs and the loss of their leading scorer Alexander Frei. Home support will only take you so far, now Jakob Kuhn's men will have to dig deep.

The Turks found Portugal simply too strong in Geneva at the weekend and must bounce back here. They have a decent record against the Swiss and will remember that last victory in 2005 which secured a World Cup spot for Fatih Terim's side.

That two-legged play-off was fiercely committed, to say the least, and although the situation is different here the facts are the same. Lose and you're going home, something which neither side would fancy after just a couple of matches.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data. Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Switzerland v Turkey - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Switzerland - P46 W19 D16 L11 F69 A46, clean sheets 20/46 (43%)
Turkey - P70 W37 D20 L13 F123 A59, clean sheets 35/70 (50%)

The Swiss played to form in their first match. They conceded, didn't trouble the scorers and failed to win. Turkey belied their overall statistics but that has to be tempered with the class of opposition they faced. There's still no denying they have the better figures of the two sides going into this clash, both in attack and defence. If we see this match going to form then it will be hard for Switzerland to get the result they require to stay alive.


Switzerland v Turkey - Match Facts

The back-to-back meeting in 2005 is of interest. There was no love lost in this two-legged affair with Turkey taking it on away goals. Both sides have dipped in quality since that time so an overview of the whole history is more enlightening and this points to the Turks having the edge. They have won seven to four, with three draws; goals are tied at 19 apiece.

Kuhn's record isn't impressive and the high number of losses (30%) and goals conceded (1.18 goals/game) is a major worry. The statistics aren't encouraging!

Fatih Terim has better figures on both sides, attack and defence, but only just. His side concede 1.02 goals/game and only score a shade more than the Swiss (1.61 to 1.54).

Switzerland v Turkey - Market Analysis

Outright result - Similar to the Czech match, the form of the Swiss and their price seem vastly at odds. In general play and head-to-head meetings it's very hard to argue that [2.28] is value for the hosts. Quite the contrary in fact. This makes both the Turkey win [3.5] and the draw [3.5] attractive options. So, lay the Swiss or choose between the other two options of which a Turkey win is a marginal, statistical favourite.

Correct Score - Both sides concede, we've seen that. Both can score, but not very many. This would peg the match as a generally low scoring, even encounter. A goal either way at most. The 1-1 draw [8.0] might act as a saver for a more speculative bet on Turkey 2-1 [16.0] but much depends upon your verdict in the outright market.

First Goalscorer - Frei is a blow for the Swiss. His absence would focus attention on Streller and Barnetta with Marco Streller [7.0] the better choice of the pair. For Turkey, Tuncay Sanli has featured in qualifiers, warm-ups (and for Boro) and [9.2] is a good mark.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - Four of the last five meetings have been 'over' and both these sides are porous at the back. By this token the 'over' at [1.59] looks the best call more so as a goal for either side will have the others chasing the game like mad.

Conclusion

The situation is clear for both these sides, lose and you're out. As such we should see an open match once the first goal goes in. And that should happen given the defensive record of each side.

The Swiss do appear to get a vote of favouritism they barely deserve and this makes for a good bit of Betfair value on the other options. The statistics give the Turks more than half a chance and Fatih Terim's side don't deserve to be dismissed so lightly.

Best bet would be to lay the Swiss whilst, for backers, the 'over' looks a safe call.

Tags: Switzerland, Turkey