Match 10 - Switzerland v Turkey / Alsy / 10 June 2008 / Leave a comment

No one will admit it or say it out loud in Switzerland but, with only one game played, the host nation could well be playing for third place in Group A against Turkey.

Statistically the group remains wide open but it was clear from the opening game of Euro 08 that Swiss talent on the pitch does not quite match Swiss support off it.

Many thought that the hosts could get something from their opening match and they were right to think so. The Czech Republic didn't show us anything new while their distribution to Jan Koller was both predictable and ineffective. Having said that, they never looked ruffled by a Swiss team playing with plenty of passion but not too much purpose.

Czech coach Karel Brückner will be pleased that his side got off to a winning start but knows an improvement has to be made. Swiss coach Jakob Kuhn also knows an improvement is required from his team - Switzerland will dig deep once more but I fear there's not a great deal left in the well.

Even with Alexander Frei Switzerland looked limp in attack, now that Frei's tournament is over it's hard to see where Swiss goals will come from. Valon Behrami looked bright on the right-hand side at times but there was no focal point to link the attacking play or provide a viable goal threat. Eren Derdiyok is young and raw but definitely talented. I would take a chance on the youngster with an excellent scoring record at under-19 and U21 level. It certainly worked coming on as a substitute at Wembley to score recently.

Turkey still have a strong chance to progress but they can't afford to look to their final game (and likely decider) against Czech Republic just yet - they have to beat Switzerland first.
Turkey didn't cause Portugal too many problems when losing 2-0 but losing to Scolari's team is no shame, especially as they're good enough to win the tournament. Turkey rarely managed to turn a resolute Portugal defence... even Paulo Ferreira looked classy and controlled when forced to defend facing his own goal. If Turkey want to beat Switzerland they have to capitalise on the excellent play of Kazim Richards. Two other key players must improve: Tuncay has the game to trouble Switzerland but he must improve his link play and provide a better threat in the box. Finally, Emre needs to play further forward where he can better influence proceedings. All three players are likely to find more space against the host nation.

On the betting front I think too much has been made of home advantage and simply don't except that Switzerland are worthy favourites. In the half-time/full-time market I'd be looking for something that gives Turkey a win at full time. You can back Turkey/Turkey at [6.8] but, with goals always at a premium, I'd back the Draw/Turkey at [8.4].

On the Asian Handicap market I'd lay Switzerland -0 & -0.5 at [1.98] as I simply don't think that the hosts will win the game by any margin. I predict another honourable defeat for Switzerland and would pick Tuncay as the most likely scorer for Turkey. This is not just Premiership bias asthe Middlesbrough forward can be deployed as a support striker or sole front man and possesses excellent timing in and around the box. I'm betting that if he gets a chance inside the area he'll improve on his air-shot against Portugal and hit the target. You can back Tuncay to score at [3.3] but if you fancy Switzerland to draw first blood then back the boy wonder Eren Derdiyok at [3.0].

Considering the bookings market I was surprised that Turkey never received a single card against Portugal... I'm confident they'll break their duck Wednesday night with most of the stadium, and an entire host nation, jeering.

Another loss for either side must be avoided at all cost and to my mind that means plenty of rash challenges as the game gets stretched so I'd back nine points and above at [1.65] while the bookings index for this match is around 60..

Tags: Emre, Eren Derdiyok, Switzerland, Tuncay, Turkey, Valon Behrami