Match 08 - Greece v Sweden / Robert Hughes / 09 June 2008 / Leave a comment

While few would expect Greece to repeat their extraordinary success of four years ago, they have every reason to be confident going into their first match. Currently ranked 8th in the world, they topped their qualifying group, winning more points than any other qualifier, and have an impressive record of nine wins in their last twelve matches.

They have added experience and strength in depth to the squad of 2004, and it's possible that they may surprise a few people all over again.

Sweden will be appearing in their fifth successive major championship. They reached the quarter-finals in Euro 2004 and only went out on penalties, but the personnel is more or less the same as it was then, and it's difficult to escape the conclusion that with coach Lars Lagerbeck having been in charge for eight years, the team is past its best and has gone a little stale. Certainly they will be hoping that the recall of the legendary Henrik Larsson (who has already retired twice from international football) will give them fresh impetus.

Larsson, with 36 international goals, will clearly attract a lot of interest in the To Score market - he can be backed at [3.1]. His strike partner Zlatan Ibrahimovic has a reputation in some parts for being something of a 'Fancy Dan', but he has been hugely effective for Inter in Serie A, and this is his best chance yet to prove himself at the highest level - he is available at [2.9] to score against the Greeks.

Toulouse striker Johan Elmander is another option at [3.55] - he may make an appearance from the bench if Larsson's 36-year old legs can't carry him through the 90 minutes. Theofanis Gekas, one of the few in the Greek squad who was not present in 2004, is likely to start as the central striker, and might be worth a look at [3.6]. Defensive midfielder Kostas Katsouranis is known for his long-range shooting, so he might have some success with the swerving new ball being used in this tournament, and might be of interest at [6.0], while centre-back Sotirios Kyrgiakos is a danger in the air from set-pieces, and can be backed at [7.0].

Although Spain are the favourites to qualify from this group, it is as wide open as the so-called 'Group of Death', in that any of the four teams could conceivably qualify.

As such, neither of these two can really afford to play for a draw, as there are no easier games coming up. Having said that, Greece are likely to rely once again on the counter-attacking style which was successful four years ago, while Sweden have struggled to score goals recently, managing only two in six games since qualifying . The [2.17] offered for Greece -0 in the Asian Handicap market looks about right to me as I wouldn't discount the possibility of Greece replicating their Euro 2004 performance just once more against Sweden and winning a tight match and certainly can't see them losing it.

Neither team has a particularly bad disciplinary record - during qualifying, Greece picked up yellow cards at a rate of 1.75 per game, and Sweden only 1.58 per game. However, the contest between the tough Greek centre-backs Dellas and Kyrgiakos and the 6ft 5in Ibrahimovic promises to be a bruising encounter, and the Swede is known to have something of a short temper.

Referee Massimo Busacca is not afraid to show the red card in high-profile matches (having done so at the last World Cup and in the 2007 UEFA Cup Final), and as he averaged 3.22 bookings per game last season, you might want to consider 6-8 points at odds of [2.28] in the Bookings Odds market. Meanwhile, the Booking Index for this match currently stands at around 50-54.

Looking at the Half Time / Full Time market, given Greece's proven ability to defend a narrow lead, you'd have to think that if they have the lead at half time, there's an excellent chance they'll hold on to it. With this in mind, it's worth looking at Greece / Greece at [6.2] - or, if you think the two teams will cancel each other out, you can go for Draw / Draw at [4.9].

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, football betting