Match 08 - Greece v Sweden / Dave Farrar / 09 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Group D is rapidly starting to look like the easiest route to the quarter finals, and these two teams need every point, and possibly every goal, that they can get. It may come down to all kinds of calculations before it's decided who is to join Spain (presumably) in the last eight.

Greece and Sweden are fairly hard to separate, and any analysis of Sweden is difficult, given the wild inconsistency in the national side of their top striker, Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

He is a player of rare talent, and when he's at his best he really would grace any of the top teams at the tournament, but he produces that kind of attacking genius only for Inter Milan. For the national team, and even on big occasions for Inter, he often goes missing.

Sweden are short of other options up front, unless you really believe that Henrik Larsson can have one last fling at 36. The leap from Helsingborgs to this level may prove too big at this stage of his career, and I'm unconvinced by a pedestrian Sweden. Greece come into the tournament with the confidence of a hard fought qualifying campaign behind them, and, while they won't catch anyone by surprise, they'll have the same work ethic and system that won them the European Championship last time.

It seems to have become fashionable to say that Greece will be a major disappointment in Euro 2008, but I don't agree. Their key players from last time are four years older, but their experience and energy will certainly test Sweden, and they will scrap for everything, something that I'm not sure that Sweden will do. Also, I would take Otto Rehhagel over Lars Lagerback any day in the coaching stakes.

If you like your money to be safe in the hands of a coach who knows what he's doing, then you should entrust it to the man who has won three Bundesliga titles and a European Championship, rather than the rather timid association man Lagerback. I don't think Greece will win the European Championships this time, but I still think that they'll qualify, and will start with a win over this group's weakest team. Back Greece at [3.2]

CORRECT SCORE

Having seen quite a lot of both of these team in qualifying, I can envisage a pretty lively first half, followed by a much more settled second period. As you can see below, I've gone for 1-1 at half time, and I think that Greece will nick it in the second half by the odd goal, to win by the same scoreline that they won their opening game in Euro 2004. 2-1 to Greece, at [15.0].

HALF TIME

In seven of their 11 completed qualifying games, Sweden led at half time, and Greece also showed a propensity for early goals so this market is a tough one as at least one first half goal seems likely. Both countries led at half time in their first games of Euro 2004 and so I'm going for the draw at half time here, but as well as taking the [2.0] on offer in that market, take a bit of the [11.0] that it's 1-1 at half time, and I certainly wouldn't discourage you from backing "first half" in the "half with most goals" market.

FIRST GOALSCORER
Angelos Charisteas is no longer the main man for Greece. His performances in the heart of Greece's midfield were crucial to their success last time round, but he has been replaced as leading man by Fanis Gekas the man who finished as topscorer in the Bundesliga two seasons ago, and who had a respectable first season for his new club Bayer Leverkusen. Gekas has only 6 in 25 internationals, but he now has real responsibility for the nationa side, and as first choice striker he's the First Goalscorer bet here at [8.4]. An excellent finisher, he's likely to take any chance that he gets.

CORNERS

Corners are certainly a weapon for Greece, as they make great use of them, but even with a make up of 17 in their match against Norway, they still only averaged 4.67 corners per game in qualifying. Sweden were predictably average in this regard and I can't see a high corner count here. Greece would be a play in the corner supremacy market, but with regard to the total corners, I would either go for 9 or under, or, more sensibly, leave well alone, and double my stake on corners in Spain against Russia.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Ibrahimovic