Match 08 - Greece v Sweden / Matthew Walton / 09 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Finally the defending champions make their grand entrance. Lucky winners for some, tactical experts to others. Whatever your view, Greece will do well to retain their crown.

Currently ranked No.8 in the world they certainly punch above their weight but despite an easy qualification the secret to Greece's success is out and with it so is their key weapon.

Finally the defending champions make their grand entrance. Lucky winners for some, tactical experts to others. Whatever your view, Greece will do well to retain their crown.

Currently ranked No.8 in the world they certainly punch above their weight but despite an easy qualification the secret to Greece's success is out and with it so is their key weapon.

Sweden similarly aren't quite the force they once were. Down to No.30 in the world their squad has a familiar look but that is reflected in their growing years. This is an old team.

Mind you, even allowing for these reservations, these two sides will feel they have a good chance of getting out of a group which also includes the perenially disappointing Spanish and the far-from-fearsome Russians. This match in Salzburg has much riding on it.

As with every match in Euro 2008 we will be providing you with a two-pronged attack on the betting markets. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of the two sides competing in each match. Secondly, we will further our analysis with a look at Match Facts which are specific head-to-head meetings, tournament qualification and general statistical analysis.

Together this will provide an insight into four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Greece v Sweden - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Greece - P56 W31 D10 L15 F74 A52, clean sheets 27/56 (48%)
Sweden - P63 W39 D16 L8 F120 A35, clean sheets 36/63 (57%)

Greece average 1.32 goals/game which is low for a top side. Add to this a concession rate of 0.92 goals/game and their results are easy to understand. Sweden keep plenty of clean sheets (57%) and have much the better form in front of goal (1.90 goals/game) as well as at the back (just 0.55 goals/game). Sweden has lost just 12% in the last decade.

Greece v Sweden - Match Facts

The previous meetings of these two sides are rare. They have met on just 5 occasions which have produced 3 draws and a couple of Greek wins. Difficult to draw many conclusions as the goals scored 8-6 in Greece's favour is hardly earth-shattering.

Otto Rehhagel has worked wonders during his time in charge of Greece. His side qualified well, albeit in a moderate group, but their performances last time around show them to be organised. Their worry is a lack of goals and a lack of solid defensive cover.

Lars Lagerback has seen his side age (only three players under 25) as results have slipped. Results during his sole charge since 2004 have been steady as opposed to spectacular and their tournament record points to a reliable, if workmanlike, outfit.

Greece v Sweden - Market Analysis

Outright result - A match which could go any one of three ways. A bet on Sweden [2.66] might not be the best value as it is the shortest price. Greece [3.15] have those two previous wins but, statistically, the draw just comes out on top at [3.15].

Correct Score - both sides must see this as a good chance to record a win. This may well promote attacking play, as opposed to caution, and goals could very well follow. The 1-1 draw at 7.0] makes appeal but 2-2 at a whopping [24.0] looks a huge price.

First Goalscorer - better to play this market with a foot in both camps. Angelos Basinas at [23.0] stands out for Greece. He scored three in the qualifiers and takes the penalties whilst Marcus Allback [9.2] scored first in three qualifiers for Sweden and looks a fair call.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - a price of [1.63] for the 'over' suggests many feel this to be a low-scoring game. However, four of their five meetings have been 'over' and the rationale given above would suggest this is a fair price for what could be an open game.

Conclusion

A game very much for the purist, in terms of form study.

This game is very hard to call on face value and we have to be led by the figures in what conclusions we draw. And that word 'draw' is the key to this one. A loss in this match will effectively knock either side out, a win could very well see tham on their way to the QF's.

As such, it might be the case of the two sides cancelling each other out. Goals look quite likely and there could very well be some big profits to be had on Betfair concerning this game. The draw is arguably the best call for the match but value looks easy to find in several other markets.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Sweden football