Match 07 - Spain v Russia / Dan Fitch / 09 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Please accept my apologies if this article struggles to retain focus. At the time of writing I'm still coming to terms with the sight of Gordon Strachan's leather jacket...

It takes a brave man to wear leather, especially when the jacket in question also features lapels, as did Strachan's. Speaking of brave individuals, it takes some bravery to back Spain for Euro 2008. They may have a squad bursting with quality, but history tells us that they generally flatter to receive.

Perhaps we should not be surprised that a team doesn't fulfil its potential, when it hails from a nation that spends every afternoon sleeping. Spain's laid back attitude is summed up by one simple fact, which proves that their winning mentality is on a permanent siesta. They have lost a penalty shoot out to England.

Newspaper sub-editors will be hoping for the opportunity to dust down their 'Out Dago' headlines, but despite their tendency to self destruct, it would be a massive surprise if they didn't make it into the quarter finals.

Spain kick off their Group D campaign with a tricky clash against Russia. The Russian manager Guus Hiddink has like most other coaches in Europe, spent much of his summer telling Roman Ambramovic that he doesn't want the Chelsea job.

The Russians can also be classed as underachievers. You'd think that from a population of 145,000,000 people that they'd be able to field a decent eleven, but it seems as if football takes a back seat to other national obsessions, such as poisoning people.

Russia's players are currently dropping like former KGB agents, with Pavel Pogrebnyak suffering a knee injury at literally the exact point when I placed a small bet on him to be Euro 2008 top scorer. Like me, Hiddink could have done without this loss, especially as the highly rated Andrei Arshavin is suspended for the first couple of group games.

In qualifying, the Russian's games were hardly goalfests, averaging at 2.08 goals per game. Just 42% of their games featured over 2.5 goals and one of them was on a plastic pitch against Paul Robinson.

Russia finished bottom of their group in Euro 2004, though they did manage a 2-1 win over the eventual winners Greece, which was their only game to break 2.5. They failed to qualify in 2000 and 1996, emphasising that Spain are mere amateurs in the under-achieving stakes.

Spain's matches in qualifying averaged at 2.58, though like Russia, only 5 games from their 12 featured more than 2.5 goals. During the campaign they kept 8 clean sheets, with Spain's reliable defence having the safety net of the excellent Casillas behind them.

Spain's Euro 2004 campaign was pathetic on the goal front, averaging just 1.33 per game and never breaking the 2.5 barrier. It was a different story in 2000 where their matches broke 2.5 goals in 3 out of 4 games. They repeated this statistic in the more recent 2006 World Cup and they've certainly got the strikers to score goals.

David Villa has 15 goals from 31 appearances, but injury may prevent him from starting against Russia. This could see Fernando Torres leading the line alone and despite the evidence of his ruthlessness in front of goal for Liverpool, his international record of 15 goals from 49 games, could be better.

Spain's close passing game doesn't always allow Torres to utilise his pace and get behind the back four. Spain's embarrassment of riches in central midfield means that they play quite narrowly, as Aragones tries to shoehorn his best players in. This approach has never got the best of Fabregas and whilst Spain are incredibly difficult to get the ball from, they lack the penetration of other sides.

Under 2.5 goals is favourite at [1.68], with the overs at [2.44]. Hiddink's team will be well organised and Spain don't play in a manner that will exploit their weakness in the air, as Emile Heskey was able to at Wembley. With Russia missing their leading attacking talents, it's a clear back of unders here.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Russian football