Match 07 - Spain v Russia / Dave Farrar / 09 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Finally we get a chance to see the best backed team of Euro 2008. And what looked like a tricky opening game for Spain has become a little less complicated thanks to the absence of the brilliant Pavel Pogrebnyak from the Russian squad.

Finally we get a chance to see the best backed team of Euro 2008. And what looked like a tricky opening game for Spain has become a little less complicated thanks to the absence of the brilliant Pavel Pogrebnyak from the Russian squad.

Since he led Zenit St Petersburg to that headline grabbing victory over Bayern Munich in the UEFA Cup semi final, everything has gone wrong for a player that I rate as one of the best strikers in Europe. First he missed that UEFA final through suspension, and now injury has ruled him out of Euro 2008.

If you add to that the absence from Russia's first two matches of Andrei Arshavin, Guus Hiddink's team has a mountain to climb against Spain before the game even kicks off.

Spain may have underachieved since 1964, but they are a seriously good team. There have to be doubts about them defensively, and I wonder whether they'll play a system which really suits the fabulous Fernando Torres, but they should be too good for an under strength Russia.

Both teams have midfielders that are very good at keeping possession, and this game gives us a chance to see some of Europe's best technical players up against each other. Spain have a cutting edge that I don't expect to be matched though, even if the game turns into a passing competition.

David Villa will either start alongside Torres, or be used to great effect as a sub, and he is one of several match winners that Spain have in their line up. Even Mallorca's Dani Guiza, a different type of striker, can come off the bench and allow Spain to play a more direct style. The defence and midfield may cancel each other out, but Spain's variety of attacking options means that I'll back them to start with a win at [1.75].

HALF TIME

It may be a bit of a chess match, but for once I don't think that the half time draw is the correct way to go in this market. There's a real chance that Spain could catch Russia cold, as Luis Aragones will be keen for his side to get into the tournament straightaway, and not waste time. I think that Spain will score in the first half, and I doubt that Russia will. So Spain to be leading at half time, at [2.46].

CORRECT SCORE

A win for Spain, but how comfortable a win? For all of their attacking flair, Spain don't actually score that many goals, but they have the ability to get more than one against weakened Russia. I think that Russia have it in them to score, and so, for small stakes, I'm going to go against the flow of these goal-shy opening games and go for Spain to win 2-1 at [10.0].

FIRST GOALSCORER

There are decent options here on both sides, and so once again I think that the best play is to split stakes and go for a player from either side. Konstantin Zyrianov's role becomes even more important given the absences of both Pogrebnyak and Arshavin. He has the ability to make excellent late runs from the midfield and could take advantage of Spanish indecision at the back. He's available at [22.0] to score first and that may well be worth an interest bet. And for Spain, I can't ignore David Silva. He often gets left out of the argument concerning the quality at Spain's disposal, but he balances the team beautifully down the left hand side, and has fierce shooting ability. He has only five international goals, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him build on that here. He's currently trading at [12.0].

CORNERS

I flagged up Spain and Portugal's matches before the tournament as ones which had huge potential in the corners markets. Spain won more corners per game than any other team in qualifying, and given that Portugal came good on Saturday against a disappointing Turkish side, I have to get with Spain against a Russian team that also likes to attack from out wide. My advice is to lay 9 or under corners.

Tags: David Villa, Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Fernnado Torres