Match 07 - Spain v Russia / Matthew Walton / 09 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The final group of these championships, quite a fascinating section, kicks-off with an intriguing encounter between two sides we know reasonably well.

Spain, on account of their UK based players, have a certain familiarity and for many the nation ranked No. 4 in the world have an exceptional chance in these championships.

Russia, despite a lowly ranking of No.24, are known by their 2-1 win over England which did much to end home interest in this competition. They are worthy of note.

The two meet in a group which may not include all the fancy names associated with Group C's 'Group Of Death' but this even section (completed with Greece and Sweden) which will be no easier to unravel. This match is an important one for both sides.

As with every match in Euro 2008 we will be providing you with a two-pronged attack on the betting markets. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of the two sides competing in each match. Secondly, we will further our analysis with a look at Match Facts which are specific head-to-head meetings, tournament qualification and general statistical analysis.

Together this will provide an insight into four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Spain v Russia - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Spain - P69 W45 D15 L9 F168 A49, clean sheets 34/69 (49%)
Russia - P60 W33 D14 L13 F107 A56, clean sheets 25/60 (41%)

Spain's recent history is impressive. A scoring average of 2.43 goals/game, a defensive record of 0.71 goals/game and, the logical result of this, just a 13% loss rate. Russia keep the goals down themselves (0.93 goals/game) but lose out in all other major areas including percentage wins (65% to 55%) and clean sheets (41% to 49%).

Spain v Russia - Match Facts

Not too much to work on in terms of the head-to-heads. Their last meeting two years ago was goalless and most matches have favoured the Spanish in terms of home advantage, hence a poor record by Russia in this fixture has to be tempered with this knowledge.

That said, Luis Aragones has a talented squad at his disposal. His side qualified well and the statistics recorded are in line with previous records - good attack, tight defence. Just 4 losses in a 48 match tenure suggest how difficult his side are to beat.

Hiddink, on the other bench, is no fool. Well-travelled and vastly experienced his side are competitive and despite a fairly mediocre set of figures the feeling is they will prove tough opponents. They do concede though which is the key area to this match.

Spain v Russia - Market Analysis

Outright result - The market at [6.0] says that Russia can't win this match. That may be so but there have been, and will be, better bets at [1.73] than Spain. The draw at [3.75] is a live runner but the scoring potential of Spain will push many to support the favourites.

Correct Score - Spain won three qualifiers 2-0 [7.8] and this has to be considered. Russia failed to score twice against Croatia and once against England in qualifying so any saver would suggest better value lies with the 1-0 [6.2] than the 2-1 [10.0].

First Goalscorer - Home bias might well make Torres poor value. Xavi [17.0] scored first in three qualifiers and must have a chance whilst the other choice would be David Villa [6.4] who has a better average for Spain than Torres with 14 goals in 31 games.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - Spain were 'over 1.5' in 10 of 12 qualifiers, Russia in 9 of 12 matches. Although Russia had two 0-0's against Croatia the scoring potential of the Spanish just tips the balance in a tricky market. A price of [1.52] is ok, nothing more.

Conclusion

As they say in boxing, 'styles make fights' and this game could have the right chemistry.

Spain as second favourites for the tournament will be expected to win, however their recent history is more of failure than fanfares - so be warned! That said, a win for Aragones' men is the widely expected outcome of this one even though the Russians will make it tough for them.

In a match where a couple of markets look short on value the better options might well prove to be the Correct Score and First Goalscorer markets. That's probably where you should be focusing your Betfair brain-power!

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Luis Aragones