Match 07 - Spain v Russia / Editor / 09 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The HT draw, as well as the FT draw, is a big runner in the opening group games, when teams are anxious to avoid defeat and games are usually very tight (2.0 average goals per game in European Championships since the current format was adopted in 1980).

Half-Time

The HT draw, as well as the FT draw, is a big runner in the opening group games, when teams are anxious to avoid defeat and games are usually very tight (2.0 average goals per game in European Championships since the current format was adopted in 1980).

At the seven Euro tournaments since 1980, 25/40 (63%) of the opening games have had HT draws, yet the HT draw has been available at evens or better in all eight opening group games this year, including this match [2.26]. Of those 25 HT draws, 19 were 0-0, five 1-1 and one 2-2, and this year's first two games were both 0-0 at HT.

In competitive games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, Spain have been level at HT in 7/16 with six HT leads.

Against teams ranked in the top 10, Russia outside their own country have been drawing at HT in 6/11 despite a poor record overall in that category.

The strongest team in the group (in this case, Spain) has had a high draw rate in their opening game at European Championships since 1980 (W7-D11-L2). The HT draw rate is also high (15/20).

HT/FT

With the propensity of draws in opening group games, it is not surprising that the most common HT/FT outcome is D-D, which accounts for 12/40 (30%) of opening-game results since 1980. On the overall figures the D-D [6.0] looks too big.

In the opening game for the strongest team in the group at European Championships since 1980, D-D (eight) and D-W for the strongest team (six) account for 14/20 of the HT/FT outcomes.

In competitive games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, the most common HT/FT result for Spain has been W-W (6/16), followed by D-D (4). At the 2006 World Cup they had W-W in 2/4.

Russia's poor record outside their own country against teams ranked in the top 10 is reflected in dismal second-half performances, with 5/6 HT draws turned into defeats and all four HT losses becoming FT defeats. Their stronger first-half record, though, points to some problems for Spain in gaining a HT lead.

With the HT draw strongly indicated, the best value here could be the Spain D-W [4.9] in light of Russia's poor second-half record.

Spain clean sheet

At the past two major tournaments (2006 World Cup and Euro 2004) teams ranked 1-10 with a ranking advantage of 15-25 places have kept a clean sheet in 10/12, with all eight wins to nil (both defeats came in the only two games where the high-ranked team conceded).

Spain have kept a clean sheet in half of their 16 games outside Spain under Luis Aragones with the same 50% rate against teams ranked in the top 30, keeping a clean sheet in 3/6 (all three against teams ranked in the 20s, as Russia are).

Against teams ranked in the top 10, Russia have failed to score in 7/11 outside their own country, including six of the last eight.

The strongest team in the group has kept a clean sheet in their opening game nine times out of 20 at European Championships since 1980.

Russia have a poor scoring record against the top teams, though Spain's 50% rate of clean sheets indicates that the odds for a Spain clean sheet [1.79] are a little short.

Russia clean sheet

Since being reduced from the massive USSR, Russia are W2-D3-L10 outside their own country against teams with a higher ranking (W0-D1-L5 on neutral territory) and have conceded in 13/15 in that category. Russia have conceded in all 11 against teams ranked in the top 10.

Spain have scored in 13/16 games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, with their only failure to score in their last 13 coming in Sweden (ranked 11 at the time). Notably, they scored in all four games at the 2006 World Cup.

The strongest team in the group has scored 15 times out of 20 in their opening game at European Championships since 1980.

There is a strong chance of Spain scoring, though that is fully reflected in the odds for Russia not to keep a clean sheet at [1.24].

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy.

Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings,

click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Spain clean sheet