Match 07 - Spain v Russia / Alsy / 09 June 2008 / 1 Comments

So the main contenders have all begun their campaigns and now it's time for Spain Coach, Luis Aragonés, to show his hand against Guus Hiddink's Russia. Much of the talk has been about the Group C of death but Aragonés could argue that Group D is no picnic either... I think he has a point.

So the main contenders have all begun their campaigns and now it's time for Spain Coach, Luis Aragonés, to show his hand against Guus Hiddink's Russia. Much of the talk has been about the Group C of death but Aragonés could argue that Group D is no picnic either... I think he has a point.

Sweden are unfancied but rarely embarrassed in international tournaments while holders Greece are not likely to cede their title without reproducing heroic scenes from the movie 300. Few expect either side to progress and that will suit their low-key preparation - in truth every side in Group D fancies their respective chances of qualification.

Hiddink's Russia are a well-drilled unit every bit as impressive as the Russian troops who parade through Moscow's Red Square. Few commentators count them among the favourites but Russia are peaking at the right time while Spain's talented squad carry a greater weight of expectation. I expect Spain to qualify but Russia have the ability to deliver a bloody nose, (as opposed to a fatal blow) to the group favourites Tuesday.

Spain always arrive at major tournaments with plenty of talent and usually leave under a familiar cloud of under-achievement. I'm not suggesting that this campaign will be another complete failure but I do think it will take Spain a couple of games to find their rhythm presenting plenty of great betting opportunities in their opening game.

The half time/full time market offers some great prices if you believe that heavy favourites Spain may falter. You can back the draw/draw at a tempting [5.8] but I fancy Spain to take the lead with Torres, Villa and Silva available. Russia are without the superb Andrei Arshavin for two games (through suspension) but if they can keep the game close they have the personnel to nick a goal against any team in the tournament... especially with the wily Hiddink scheming from the bench. If you agree and feel bullish you should back Spain/Draw at a tempting [20.0].

Russia only lost two games and let in 7 goals during qualifying so while Spain remain heavily backed to win I recommend giving Russia a little love. On the Asian Handicap market I'd lay Spain -0.5 & -1.0 at [2.05]. While a Spanish victory is widely expected I don't see a victory by a two-goal margin in what is sure to be a tense and keenly contested opening affair.

Premiership fans are well aware of Fernando Torres - the likely spear in the Spanish attack. A year ago David Villa was in pole position for this spot before Ronald Koeman arrived at Valencia and Torres arrived at Anfield. Thirty-three goals later, Torres is simply too hot to sit on the bench. While he does not score as freely away from home, he's still the safest bet in the To Score market at [2.4].

I expect Russia to face considerable pressure from a Spain side overflowing with technique and touch in the midfield area. Russia's defense will have to put in a long shift but I don't expect a huge amount of bookings in this match.

Often the opening matches of tournaments set the tone for how strict the referees will be and so far they seem to be eager to let play flow where possible. Konrad Plautz will officiate and is best known in England for the odd random decision at Anfield when Liverpool played Chelsea in the 1st leg of this years' Champions League semi-final. An Austrian national, Plautz will aim to keep everyone's focus on player performances rather than his own so I don't see him throwing too many cards around.

During qualifying both Russia and Spain maintained decent disciplinarily records. Spain averaged 1.67 yellow cards and Russia 1.25 so looking at the Bookings Odds market I can't see more than three or four bookings and would look to lay at '9pts and Above'.

Tags: David Villa, Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Luis Aragones