Match 06 - Netherlands v Italy / Dan Fitch / 08 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Now it's hotting up. Monday night sees a bona fide battle of the giants as Holland meet Italy and we're not even in the knockout stages yet.

If you've had arguments with your wife/girlfriend/other form of sexual partner, over dominance of the remote control, then this is the one where you need to start to assert your authority.

It can be lonely being single, especially around Christmas, Valentines Day and when you're ill, but it comes into its own when there's a major summer football tournament on. I know that I will struggle to pitch Austria v Poland as a game that I absolutely have to watch, especially when there's some nonsense featuring Gok Wan and a hideously ugly woman on the other side.

The good thing about Italian footballers is that they tend to be really good looking and wear the sort of skin tight kit which makes your lady partner take a hitherto unprecedented interest in the game. The Dutch are less good looking, but fun for novelty value with their bright orange kit and propensity for inflicting their young men with monikers that haven't been used in England since the 1950s.

If you doubt this last claim, try to think of another group of men that feature an Edwin, a Wilfred, a Wesley and a Dirk, which weren't part of a World War II Field Artillery Battalion. It's not just the Dutch names that are traditional. One of the great joys of international football is the way nations manage to live up to perceptions about them and Holland have duly delivered on this front.

The Dutch may seem to be a mellow nation of people with their liberal views on drug taking and prostitution, but if you stick a number of their footballers together for a couple of weeks, you can expect fireworks. Clarence Seedorf and Mark van Bommel have both made themselves unavailable for selection following disputes with Marco van Basten and it's probably only a matter of time before another Dutch star throws his clogs out of the pram.

Few sides can boast a striker so dedicated to the art of goal scoring than Ruud van Nistlerooy (31 goals from 61 games) and Holland have able backup in Klaas Jan Huntelaar (7 goals in 12 games). Despite these riches, Holland were far from prolific in qualification, scoring just 15 goals in 12 games. In all, their matches averaged just 1.66 goals per game, with just 25% breaking the 2.5 goals mark.

Italy play with Luca Toni on his own in attack, with Di Natale and Camoranesi providing support from the flanks. This might sound defensive, but it's more of a 4-3-3 than a 4-5-1 and the Italian's games in qualification averaged a respectable 2.58 goals per game, breaking the 2.5 barrier in 50% of their matches.

The current world champions have not been so prolific in the European Championships, going out in the group stage in two of the last three tournaments (though they did reach the final in 2000). In their triumphant World Cup campaign of 2006, they only featured in one match with more than 2.5 goals and never looked deadly in attack.

Holland also only broke 2.5 once in 2006, before going out in the second round to Portugal. They were more attacking before Van Basten's reign, claiming overs in half of their games in 2004 and 2000, as they reached the semi finals on both occasions.

There are questions marks over both defences. The Dutch may have an array of star names available in attacking quarters, but neither their holding midfielders nor their back four are up to this standard. Not many sides who can be considered amongst the favourites for the tournament will feature defenders that play for Wigan and Blackburn.

Italy's defence are famously measly, but Cannavaro is unavailable through injury and his replacement Materazzi has had an indifferent season. At full back, neither Panucci nor Zambrotta will relish the pace of Arjen Robben.

Under 2.5 goals is a good price at [1.63], with overs at [2.52]. A draw would not be a disaster for these sides and I don't think either have the attacking capabilities to take advantage of the other's defensive frailties.

Tags: Holland, Italy, Luca Toni, Mauro Camoranesi, Ruud van Nistelrooy