Netherlands v Italy - Match odds, Correct score, first goal odds, over/under 1.5 goals

Match 06 - Netherlands v Italy / Matthew Walton / 08 June 2008 / Leave a comment

No chance to play yourself into the tournament for these two sides. Right from the get-go it's a severe examination of their credentials against a top notch opponent.

Holland, no.10 in the world, have been serial under-achievers for longer than one cares to remember. So much so ... this might just be their time.

Italy, ranked no.3, are the world champions and never far away when the silverware is handed out. Tough and competitive, it's always foolish to discount the Italians.

However, sharing a tough group with France and Romania will allow no room for slip-ups for either nation. This is a match which both teams will be glad to get out of the way - but only if they get the right result. A lot is at stake in Berne.

As with every match in Euro 2008 we will be providing you with a two-pronged attack on the betting markets. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of the two sides competing in each match. Secondly, we will further our analysis with a look at Match Facts which are specific head-to-head meetings, tournament qualification and general statistical analysis.

Together this will provide an insight into four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Holland v Italy - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Holland - P65 W41 D14 L10 F134 A42, clean sheets 37/65 (57%)
Italy - P71 W44 D22 L5 F120 A43, clean sheets 38/71 (53%)

Holland score a high number at 2.06 goals/game and conceding just 0.64 goals/game is similarly impressive. A loss of just 10 matches in 65 (15%) is also eye-catching. Italy, for their part, are even stronger with only 5 losses in 71 matches (7%) and concede only 0.60 goals/game. Both sides keep a high number of clean sheets, over 50% apiece

Holland v Italy - Match Facts

The Dutch have had little joy against the Italians. Just two wins in 15 previous meetings and an average of just one goal/game. Italy have won seven times and drawn six more games to register a 86% win/draw record. As such, the statistics offer little hope of a Holland win.

With Marco Van Basten at the helm the Dutch have become a very effective unit. At the back they have shed just 0.58 goals/game whilst netting a respectable 1.79 goals/game and have proven tough to beat by tasting defeat on just 5 starts (10%).

Roberto Donadoni hasn't had much experience in the Italian job. His side win their fair share (63%) but have been conceding goals of late as 0.94 goals/game is high for the typically frugal Italians. Hence the loss of Cannavaro is a worry at the back.

Holland v Italy - Market Analysis

Outright result - Holland are the outsiders but still seem poor value at [3.55] with Italy the understandable favourites at [2.5]. No surprise to see the draw down as low as [3.1] for a potentially close match and many backers will latch onto this mark.

Correct Score - any bet on the draw would bring in 0-0 [8.0] and 1-1 [6.8] as the live runners to consider. Holland, statistically, have little chance of winning and with defences on top Italy to win 1-0 [7.4] is the only other logical option.

First Goalscorer - the loss of Cannavaro may spur on the Dutch strikers but the interest should be in No Goalscorer [7.6] or possibly a dead-ball specialist such as Pirlo [17.0] with strikers not being afforded their average number of scoring opportunities.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - both sides are more than capable of scoring, however both have competent defences. A tempting mark of [1.54] for the 'over' is representative of a low-scoring match but the call, on balance, would be the 'under' at [2.7].

Conclusion

In what could prove to be a tight group, this match could very well set the tone.

Both sides know exactly what is at stake and a loss for either would be a significant blow to their chances of making it to the QF's. Given their experience and the available statistics we could see a match with few chances...

Mind you, that doesn't diminish our chances to benefit on Betfair. Several markets offer decent value and this match could prove the adage that 'less action makes for more profit'.

Tags: Andrea Pirlo, Holland, Italy