Match 06 - Netherlands v Italy / Editor / 08 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The HT draw, as well as the FT draw, is a big runner in the opening group games, when teams are anxious to avoid defeat and games are usually very tight (2.0 average goals per game in European Championships since the current format was adopted in 1980).

EURO 2008: NETHERLANDS v ITALY

Half-time

At the seven Euro tournaments since 1980, 25/40 (63%) of the opening games have had HT draws, yet the HT draw has been available at evens or better in all eight opening group games this year, including this match [2.08]. Of those 25 HT draws, 19 were 0-0, five 1-1 and one 2-2, and this year's first two games were both 0-0 at HT.

In the last five major tournaments, 50% (17/34) of matches between teams ranked in the top 10 have been HT draws.

Since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands have had nine HT leads in 21 finals matches (W9-D7-L5), with a W3-D3-L4 HT record against teams ranked in the top 10. In all competitive games under Marco Van Basten, the Netherlands have been resolute in the first half, being ahead at HT in 17/28 and trailing in just two.

Italy have a very solid first-half record, trailing in only 2/25 games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup (W11-D12-L2), with a very high HT draw rate against teams ranked in the top 10 (W2-D6-L0). They have led at HT in seven of their last eight competitive games and have not conceded in the first half.

The overall figures and the resolution of both teams point to another HT draw [2.08] while a HT 0-0 [2.34] merits consideration for better odds.

HT/FT

With the propensity of draws in opening group games, it is not surprising that the most common HT/FT outcome is D-D, which accounts for 12/40 (30%) of opening-game results since 1980. On the overall figures the D-D [5.6] looks too big.

In the last five major tournaments, the most common HT/FT result between teams ranked in the top 10 has been D-D (9/34).

Since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands have turned nine HT leads into seven FT wins in 21 finals matches, with the W-W being their most common result. They have never lost after being level at HT, with five D-D and two D-W. In 10 finals matches against teams ranked in the top 10, their most common results have been W-W and D-D (three apiece).

Italy show similar figures in their 25 games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup. When they have led at HT, they have turned 9/11 into FT wins, with no defeats. And when they have been level at HT, 8/12 have been D-D, with just one defeat.

If this match is level at HT, the D-D [5.6] looks the most likely outcome, with both teams showing high D-D figures at major finals.

Netherlands clean sheet

Since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in 9/21 (43%) finals matches, with seven coming in their 12 group games.

Italy have scored in 21/25 of their games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup (only one of the four failures to score was in a group match, and all four failures were goalless draws, with two coming in semi-finals and one in a quarter-final). They have scored in 14/15 group games.
With a cagey game in prospect, it would not be a surprise if at least one of the teams kept a clean sheet, and the Netherlands clean sheet [3.3] might offer some value, though Italy's scoring record is a negative.

Italy clean sheet

Italy have kept a clean sheet in just over half (13/25) of their games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup. However, their number of clean sheets is lower in group matches, with 6/15.
Since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands have scored in 16/21 finals matches, scoring in 10/12 group games.

Even the strong possibility of a draw does not rule out Italy conceding, as 7/11 of their draws at major finals have been score draws, though the Italy clean sheet [2.68] looks a little overpriced based on their overall record at finals, though about right when judged against their figures in group games.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Holland, Italy