Match 06 - Netherlands v Italy / Editor / 08 June 2008 / Leave a comment

In recent major tournaments it seems nobody is happy unless we have what is now known as a Group of Death.

Essentially this features at least three top teams who will all have fancied that they would comfortably qualify for the knockout phases of the event. This year that honour goes to Group C, which contains powerhouses France, Italy and the Netherlands as well as the unfortunate Romania. Unsurprisingly then, it is this group that throws up the tournaments first really big match-up. Netherlands v Italy on Monday night is one not to be missed.

After Spain it is the Netherlands that are everyone’s favourite tip to do well in a major event. As we are all to well aware we are still waiting for either team to really excel in recent championships. The Dutch are a frustrating team as they possess so many talented players that for some reason never seem to perform quite as well for their country as they do for their club. Italy on the other hand are very much tournament specialists and have gone into quite a few with what appears to be only an average side only for them to far exceed expectations.

Understandably, it is the Italians that are the favourites for this match but I certainly don’t think you can in any way dismiss the Dutch. Both teams have their injury concerns coming into the match with Italy missing inspirational skipper Cannavaro and the Netherlands struggling to get the likes of Robben, Van Persie and Sneijder fit for the opening games. With either team unlikely to give much away in their first game it is certainly worth siding with the Dutch in the Asian Handicap market. The middle line in regards to the odds is Netherlands +0&+0.5. I strongly recommend backing the Netherlands on this line at current odds of [1.9].

Before the match it is likely that both teams would settle for a draw and in those situations that is often the most likely outcome. I slightly favour the Dutch in this game and in truth they are my main pick for the whole event but this won’t stop me from seeking out a little value in the HT/FT market. With Cannavaro missing it may take Italy a little time to settle at that back and I expect the Netherlands to catch them cold and take the lead in the first half. However, you can never write Italy off and with Luca Toni up top they may get back on level terms in the second period. Therefore the Netherlands/Draw option looks to be the one to be on for this market at tempting odds of [17.0].

It is fair to say that both Italy and Netherlands will be largely reliant upon their main man up front for the goals. Van Nistelrooy is the obvious source of the Dutch goals but they may just have more options available than their opponents. Luca Toni will be a huge threat for Italy and I would expect him to be the man most likely to get on the scoresheet tomorrow. A class act Toni is a must bet in the To Score market at odds of around [2.8].

Early indications are that you are going to have to earn your bookings in this tournament. Obviously it is a little early to talk about trends but certainly I don’t think there will be the kind of card issuing you often get at World Cups. In an opening game that is likely to be cagey I don'’t expect a feast of yellow cards in this encounter either. It is true that both sides do have their hot heads though so I can see three or four bookings being the range. Check out the Booking Odds market where you can back the 6-8pts option at odds of around [2.74].

For those of you who don’t feel involved until the big games start then your time has arrived. This has all the makings of a cracker and maybe, just maybe, we will be witnessing the Euro 2008 winners in action.

Tags: Holland, Italy