Match 05 - Romania v France / Editor / 08 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The HT draw, as well as the FT draw, is a big runner in the opening group games, when teams are anxious to avoid defeat and games are usually very tight (2.0 average goals per game in European Championships since the current format was adopted in 1980).

EURO 2008: ROMANIA v FRANCE

Half-time

At the seven Euro tournaments since 1980, 25/40 (63%) of the opening games have had HT draws, yet the HT draw has been available at evens or better in all eight opening group games this year, including this match [2.2]. Of those 25 HT draws, 19 were 0-0, five 1-1 and one 2-2, and this year's first two games were both 0-0 at HT.

Back to and including Euro 96, Romania have had one HT lead in 11 finals matches (W1-D4-L6), while in major championships in the same period, France have trailed at HT in just four of 32 games. France have been level at HT in just over half of those games (W11-D17-L4), including seven of their last nine (they led at HT in the two exceptions).

The French have not been behind at HT in any of their last 32 competitive games (since playing Croatia in Euro 2004) and have not trailed in 29 games under Raymond Domenech (W12-D17-L0). In 29 competitive games under Victor Piturca, Romania have trailed at HT only three times (W16-D10-L3).

With both teams having very low figures for HT deficits, and France's 59% HT draw rate under Domenech backing up the overall figures, the HT draw [2.2] looks the best value at odds-against.

HT/FT

With the propensity of draws in opening group games, it is not surprising that the most common HT/FT outcome is D-D, which accounts for 12/40 (30%) of opening-game results since 1980. On the overall figures the D-D [5.6] looks too big.

Under Raymond Domenech, France's predominant HT/FT outcome has been W-W (10/29) but the strong pointers to a HT draw will raise interest in D-D (8/29) and D-W (7/29).

Romania also have strong W-W figures (15/29) in competitive games under Victor Piturca , though outside Romania they are W5-D7-L2 at HT, and in 10 of those 14 games they have had W-W or D-W (five of each).

With both teams effective at turning HT draws into FT wins, the HT/FT is difficult to call, despite the overall figures pointing more towards the D-D.

Romania clean sheet

Against top 10 opposition since the 1994 World Cup, Romania have had only three clean sheets in 15 games, though all three were in their last three games in that category (including home and away against the Netherlands in qualifying for this tournament). In major tournaments since 1994, they have recorded just two clean sheets in 16 games.

France scored in 6/7 at the 2006 World Cup, their only previous tournament under Raymond Domenech, with the exception being their opening 0-0 against Switzerland. Overall they have scored in 22/29 competitive games under Domenech.

The figures point to the likelihood of a France goal, though the possibility of a cagey game is a deterrent at the short odds for Romania not to keep a clean sheet [1.3].

France clean sheet

In major championship games since winning Euro 2000, France have kept a clean sheet in a surprisingly low 5/14 games, though their record is better under Raymond Domenech (clean sheets in 4/7). In 29 competitive games under Domenech, France have kept 20 clean sheets.
Romania have scored in just over half (8/15) of their games against top 10 opposition since the 1994 World Cup, though in only three of the last nine. In major tournaments since 1994, they have scored in 11/16.

France are much the more likely team to keep a clean sheet and their record under Domenech (two clean sheets in three group games at the 2006 World Cup) indicates some value in a France clean sheet [2.16].

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: France, Romania