Match 05 - Romania v France / Ben Lyttleton / 08 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Raymond Domenech used to be a fan of amateur dramatics before he was appointed France coach. He does not have enough time to continue acting, although it¹s difficult to argue with his claim that his press conferences are 'one-man shows, like another sort of human comedy'.

The eccentric boss thrives on conflict and enjoys surprising the press with his decisions: as the inclusion of Pascal Chimbonda at the last World Cup and Bafetimbi Gomis this summer suggest.

All of which means that predicting a Domenech side can never be an exact science: besides the injury doubt over Patrick Vieira, his biggest selection dilemma appears to be choosing two out of Karim Benzema, Thierry Henry and Nicolas Anelka to start up front. Benzema is the shortest of the three to score at anytime at [3.05] with Henry [3.5] and Anelka [5.0], in a match France know they need to win to avoid a potentially-tricky third match against their rivals Italy (this despite the fact that Anelka has yet to score in a major international tournament). That does not represent great value for me, though the [4.3] for Franck Ribery, the team's penalty-taker and scorer of the winner in last week's friendly against Colombia, is much more tempting.

France's qualification for Euro 2008 was not an easy one, and after they lost their first qualifier to Scotland in October 2006, there was a lot of discussion about their weakness from set-pieces­ including the World Cup final, they conceded four goals in a row from corners or free-kicks, and Domenech admitted it was a concern. In recent matches, the defence has looked more solid (one goal conceded in five matches this year, back in February to Spain). The prime candidate amongst the Romanian players to score is Adrian Mutu, who is priced up at [4.3]. It may also be worth keeping an eye on Cosmin Contra however - the experienced wing back loves getting forward given the chance and is available at [17.0].

I have written elsewhere about France knowing they have to start the competition with a win, but how that reflects the half-time/full-time market might depend on the team Domenech picks to start the game. In their last three wins, France were ahead at the break as well, which is why the France/France price is [3.05]. But against Ecuador, it was goalless until Gomis came on and scored two great second-half strikes. I believe Benzema will be France's key striker this summer, but there is that outside chance he will start on the bench: if so, with the likelihood he will come on in the second half, the draw/France market at [5.6] becomes a more attractive option.

Not that Romania will be pushovers, as we know all too well about their defensive ability: the fact they did not concede in two qualifiers against Holland tells its own story, while coach Victor Piturca has moved his best player Cristian Chivu into defensive midfield as he is so happy with the Goian-Tamas centre-back partnership. Because Romania are underdogs in all three games, Piturca is under no pressure to go for it any of the games: I expect him to start with three defensive midfielders (Chivu, Radoi and Codrea) and attack on the break. That makes the Romania +0.5+1 Asian Handicap price of [1.77] worth a look, as the team might lose, but it won¹t be by much.

The bookings market is a tempting one where Romania is involved, as no team had more yellow cards (30) or reds (2) in qualifying. But it's worth considering that this match will be officiated by Manuel Mejuto Gonzalez, one of the more lenient referees at the tournament. Gonzalez brandishes his cards with flamboyant vigour, but he does not do it that often: in five Euro qualifiers, he averaged just two yellows a game. So consider the lay of nine-points and above at [4.9] in this market, and always remember take into account which referee is in charge before piling in.

Tags: Adrian Mutu, Dorin Goian, France, Franck Ribery, Karim Benzema, Nicolas Anelka, Romania, Thierry Henry