Match 04 - Germany v Poland / Dave Farrar / 07 June 2008 / Leave a comment

We're lucky when analysing this match, as we have a recent major tournament game with which to compare it, from the World Cup in 2006.

One obvious difference is the presence of Leo Beenhakker on the Polish bench, and what a change that might make. The teams on view here won't be hugely different from the ones that played in Dortmund two Junes ago, and the inclusion in Jogi Loew's squad of Oliver Neuville, the man who got Germany's late winner that crazy evening, is more intriguing here than in any other match. That day, he came on as a substitute for Lukas Podolski and scored, and come Sunday night he'll be sitting next to Podolski on the bench. Poland have never beaten Germany after 15 times of asking, although they have managed to draw four of those, two of the draws coming in competitive games. And Poland's toothless displays at the World Cup have added to the perception that they're lightweight and will underperform here.

I'm not so sure. If Leo Beenhakker was called Guus Hiddink, would so many people be keen to oppose the Poles? I doubt it, although Beenhakker's record as a coach is arguably better than that of Hiddink. What Poland lacked under Jerzy Engel was self belief, and the days of Lato, Deyna and Boniek have been regarded back home as something which can never be rekindled. They don't have any players of that standard in their Euro 2008 squad, but they have enough class and certainly the organisation to get out of this group at Croatia's expense. Because of all that, I'm tempted to lay Germany, but will leave this market alone. Poland know that their decisive match will be the final one against Croatia, and they may just have one eye on that. If you want to have a stake in this game, then concentrate on the half time value below, and on Ebi Smolarek. And, if you haven't already, then back Poland to qualify from the Group at [3.0].

HALF TIME

Poland have one of the most physical teams on view, and will take some breaking down. One interesting aspect of their qualifying campaign is that they led at half-time in six matches home and away against their main group rivals Serbia, Portugal and Belgium. They struggled against the better organised Finland, but Germany will be much more attacking than the Finns. On value grounds alone, you have to take the [7.0] that Poland lead at half time. They will come out of the traps early and may shock the Germans, who could be forced to come from behind.

FIRST GOALSCORER

Having tipped Mario Gomez to have the tournament of his life in Austria and Switzerland and finish as top goalscorer, it seems illogical to desert him here, but, while I won't deter you from getting stuck into Stuttgart's Super Mario as an anytime scorer at [2.54], for first goalscorer I'm going to go with the man who was instrumental in Poland's strong starts in qualifying, Ebi Smolarek. He may have managed only four league goals this year for Racing Santander, and his nine goals in qualifying may be slightly polished by four in two games against Kazakhstan, but [14.5] is too big a price to ignore for him to score first. Although, as ever with this market, try to get matched at a bigger price if you can.

CORRECT SCORE

Given that our guide match in relation to this, on the 14th June in 2006 in Dortmund, came within two added minutes of finishing 0-0, should that scoreline really be trading at [14.5]? Germany could run riot as they have the potential to score goals, but that's more likely to happen against Croatia and certainly Austria. The Poles will keep it tight, Germany will be put under pressure, and [14.5] for 0-0, or a similar price for no goalscorer, is just too big to ignore

CORNERS

The way that Germany play seems to set the match up for a high corner count. Lahm and Jansen coming forward from full back and peppering Artur Boruc with crosses, and Ballack and Frings shooting from long range. But remember that Lahm is a left footed player at right back and so his natural instinct will be to cut inside rather than go outside the full back and remember as well that Poland don't exactly throw men forward down the flanks. Nine or fewer corners at around about [2.0] is the call here. That price is too short simply because of the perception that Germany are the most attacking team at the tournament.

Tags: Artur Boruc, Ebi Smolarek, Germany, Leo Beenhakker, Mario Gomez, Poland