Match 04 - Germany v Poland / Matthew Walton / 07 June 2008 / Leave a comment

All eyes will be on Klagenfurt for this match as many people's tournament favourites enter the fray.

Germany are ranked no.5 in the world and have a wealth of experience in these big tournaments. This event is right on their doorstep and a 'big run' is expected.

Poland are No.28 in the rankings but performed admirably in the qualifiers to make it here (topping their group ahead of Portugal).

Many backers will see this match as a guide for the rest of the tournament as the Germans are clear market leaders for the trophy at [5.0]. That said, the Poles will not allow their neighbours an easy start in what could be a good opening match-up.

As with every match in Euro 2008 we will be providing you with a two-pronged attack on the betting markets. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of the two sides competing in each match. Secondly, we will further our analysis with a look at Match Facts which are specific head-to-head meetings, tournament qualification and general statistical analysis.

Together this will provide an insight into four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Germany v Poland - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Germany - P63 W38 D17 L8 F115 A47, clean sheets 32/63 (51%)
Poland - P56 W32 D9 L15 F100 A58, clean sheets 22/56 (39%)

Germany are strong both offensively and defensively. Scoring 1.82 goals/game and letting in just 0.74 clearly illustrates their ability. Poland are no less impressive with 1.78 goals/game and a win percentage of 57% compared to Germany's 60%. However, at the back they do concede. Just 39% clean sheets for the Poles and this could be the key.

Germany v Poland - Match Facts

Germany have never lost to Poland and have won 11 of 15 past encounters (73%). In the process the Poles have scored just seven times and Germany have found the net on 27 occasions. Germany have won for out the last five encounters, most recently in 2006.

Joachim Low has carried on the work of Klinsmann - Germany score plenty and concede few. Under Low they average 2.68 goals/game and concede just 0.63 in each match. They will be organised and efficient, solid as opposed to spectacular.

Beenhakker's side are credible opponents but their weakness looks to be at the back. In conceding 1.00 goal/game Poland give their opponents every chance and although they score a decent number themselves that is out of necessity and not luxury.

Germany v Poland - Market Analysis

Outright result - Poland are written off at [7.8] but no wins in 15 past meetings explains this price, even the [4.1] for the draw is right on the cusp of value. Germany at [1.56] are the clear bet on head-to-head form and on general statistics that price is still acceptable.

Correct Score - The weight of analysis would suggest the value lies in the favourites winning this match to nil. The 1-0 scoreline [8.6] and the 2-0 [7.8] look live runners in this regard. Poland do concede and, on balance, Germany should find a way to start with a win.

First Goalscorer - The favouritism of Klose [5.7] is understandable but the qualifiers point to players such as Ballack [8.0], Hitzlsperger [15.5] and Frings [16.0]. Here we have penalty taking possibilities and goals from midfield if Poland keep it tight at the back.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - clearly a 1-0 scoreline is at odds with an 'over' bet. That said, the price of [1.27] doesn't offer massive value anyway. There seem better options to this match in the other markets and this bet represents too little reward for the risk.

Conclusion

We should learn plenty about this tournament from this match. Are Germany that good?

The analysis would point to a win for Joachim Low's side as Poland have a poor head-to-head record against Germany and struggle to keep clean sheets. However, with the tradition of first matches within groups being close we may not see a high-scoring encounter.

The pick of the value seems to lie in the Correct Score market, worthy of serious consideration on Betfair, and from there we'll see just how good the tournament jollies really are!

Tags: Germany, Poland