Match 04 - Germany v Poland / Editor / 07 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The HT draw, as well as the FT draw, is a big runner in the opening group games, when teams are anxious to avoid defeat and games are usually very tight (2.0 average goals per game in European Championships since the current format was adopted in 1980).

EURO 2008: GERMANY v POLAND

Half-Time

At the seven Euro tournaments since 1980, 25/40 (63%) of the opening games have had HT draws, which indicates that backing the HT draw across the board has some merit as it is odds-against in seven of the eight opening group games this year, including this match [2.48]. Of those 25 HT draws, 19 were 0-0, five 1-1 and one 2-2.

Germany have been drawing at HT in 8/19 competitive games under Joachim Low and his predecessor Jurgen Klinsmann, and at the 2006 World Cup they were level at HT in 4/7 (including a HT 0-0 in their 1-0 win over Poland). Overall, under Low and Klinsmann, they have been level at HT in 6/10 against teams ranked in the top 30.

Against teams ranked in the top 10, Poland since 2000 have been drawing at HT in 2/4 outside Poland, from a total of 11 HT draws in 27 games outside Poland in that period. They have trailed at HT in just 6/27.

The strongest team in the group (in this case, Germany) has had a high draw rate in their opening game at European Championships since 1980 (W7-D11-L2). The HT draw rate is also high (15/20).

HT/FT

With the propensity of draws in opening group games, it is not surprising that the most common HT/FT outcome is D-D, which accounts for 12/40 (30%) of opening-game results since 1980. On the overall figures the D-D [6.8] looks too big.

In the opening game for the strongest team in the group at European Championships since 1980, D-D (eight) and D-W for the strongest team (six) account for 14/20 of the HT/FT outcomes.

In competitive games under Low and Klinsmann, the most common HT/FT result for Germany has been W-W (10/19), followed by D-D (5) and D-W (3). They have trailed at HT only once, and that was their only defeat (3-0 at home against Czech Republic in qualifying, which was a questionable result as Germany had qualified already).

In 27 games outside Poland since 2000, Poland have lost only three times out of 21 when not trailing at HT (all D-L), which indicates they will be difficult to beat if they can get to the break level, as Germany's win figures are better when they lead at HT.

Germany clean sheet

Germany have kept a clean sheet in 11/19 competitive games under Jurgen Klinsmann and Joachim Low and, though most of those games were on home soil, they kept a clean sheet in 3/6 away qualifiers for this tournament. Overall, they have kept a clean sheet in 6/10 against teams ranked in the top 30.

Back to and including Euro 92, Germany are W11-D2-L0 in tournaments against teams with an SOS ranking grade below 150, keeping a clean sheet in 9/13. Eight of the 11 wins have been to nil.

Poland have scored in 2/4 against teams ranked in the top 10 outside Poland since the turn of the millennium and in 20/27 of all games outside Poland in that period, though they have been shut out in 4/6 at major tournaments (including in the 1-0 defeat by Germany in the 2006 World Cup).

The strongest team in the group has kept a clean sheet in their opening game nine times out of 20 at European Championships since 1980, making Germany's [2.26] price look well set.

Poland clean sheet

Poland have conceded in all four games against teams ranked in the top 10 outside Poland since the turn of the millennium and have conceded in 20/27 of all games outside Poland in that period, including 6/6 at major tournaments.

Germany have scored in 15/19 competitive games under Jurgen Klinsmann and Joachim Low and, though most of those games were on home soil and have scored in seven of their last ten games against teams ranked in the top 30.

The strongest team in the group has scored 15 times out of 20 in their opening game at European Championships since 1980. All things considered, we don't think there's much wrong with Poland's [7.2] clean sheet price

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

All analysis, unless otherwise noted, is based on competitive games since the beginning of the of the 1998 world cup finals

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

Tags: Germany, Poland