Germany v Poland - Half time/full time, asian handicap, to score, bookings odds/bookings index

Match 04 - Germany v Poland / Editor / 08 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Tournament favourites Germany get their quest to capture Euro 2008 underway with what is a potentially fantastic match against Poland.

The Poles are undoubtedly big outsiders for the tournament but any team that makes it through the tough qualification process is worthy of merit. It promises to be a great encounter between two old foes and most definitely one to enjoy as a neutral.

The approach to the group stages of any tournament is always very difficult, as you know that the first game can be make or break the whole campaign. In this case it is Germany who are under the most pressure, as they will be fancied to win the game. For Poland anything they get out of the game will be a bonus as they are more realistically chasing second spot in the group.

If the Match Odds market doesn'’t make much appeal to you then maybe you should check out the Asian Handicap market. As usual there are three separate handicaps available and you can just select whichever one takes your fancy. The middle line will nearly always be the line that has both the teams trading as close to evens as possible. In this particular match the middle line is Germany -1. My recommendation here would be to back Poland +1 at current odds of [2.04], this effectively gives you the draw as a no bet. I believe Germany are over hyped and will struggle to stamp their authority in their opening match of Euro 2008.

Lets not forget that Germany haven'’t won a single game in either of the last two European Championship finals, including draws with Latvia and Romania. This has seen them fail to get past the Group stages in either of those tournaments and I am a little surprised to see how short they are to win this match let alone the tournament. I expect the encounter to be tight and whilst I have a sneaky feeling Poland could nick it, I think the safer and more likely bet would be to back Draw/Draw in the Half Time/Full Time market. This is currently available at [7.0] and appears to me to represent decent value.

Goals are likely to be at a premium in this hard fought contest. For Poland it is pretty hard to see where the goal threat is likely to come from, Smolarek is a decent striker but can blow hot and cold. Germany definitely have more obvious firepower and in Klose and Podolski they have strikers with strong International scoring records. In addition they also have the free scoring midfielder Michael Ballack. He had a great end to the domestic season with Chelsea and comes here in good form. Ballack has an incredible 35 International goals and at [3.3] in the To Score market he looks a good bet to add to that tally against Poland on Sunday.

There is a general consensus that this match will be a pretty fiery clash between renowned rivals. Whilst I agree that it will be hard fought and certainly no quarter given I do have my doubts as to whether this will result in a rash of cards. Neither team has a particularly poor recent disciplinary record and in fact there is only one player in both squads together that has an International sending-off to their name. I think it has been way over hyped and I firmly believe that we will only see a maximum of two or three bookings. Therefore the recommendation is that you check the Bookings Odds market out and lay the ‘9pts and Above’ option at what are prohibitive odds.

There are no opening games in a European Championships that don’t have an exciting feeling about them and this one, of course, is no different. Expect a nervous affair with little between the two teams as they both ease their way into the tournament they have been building up to for the last two years. Sit back and watch the action unfold.

Tags: Germany, Poland