Match 03 - Austria v Croatia / Dan Fitch / 07 June 2008 / Leave a comment

On Sunday the Austrian football team get the chance to redeem the nation's tarnished reputation and help build some national pride.

Unfortunately, the side are so bad that 10,000 of their own people have signed a petition to get the squad to pull out of Euro 2008, because they feel that they'll be embarrassed by them.

When a country has received as much negative press as Austria have in the last year, it takes a football team to be particularly rubbish, for them to be the nation's chief source of embarrassment. Of course, the most famous Austrian of all time is Adolf Hitler, which may be the football team's saving grace. Even if they lose each game 5-0, they can at least claim with some assurance, to have not have been as bad for Austrian PR as the former leader of the Third Reich.

Croatia come into the tournament with an altogether cleaner bill of health and with decidedly less demons to slay. They are used to heaping further embarrassment on a country, having metaphorically pulled down England's shorts for the world to laugh and point.

Their manager Slaven Bilic has the potential to be the most entertaining of Europe's coaches on display this summer. Whilst Steve McClaren pratted about with his brolly in case he got his knitted hairstyle wet, Bilic was on the touchline in his sodden shirtsleeves, looking for all the world like Bruce Bixby just before he turns into The Incredible Hulk.

Whilst the chain smoking Bilic will attract the attention off the pitch, on the field all eyes will be on Luca Modric (especially those rose tinted ones from N17). As a Spurs fan I can't wait to see Modric, but can't help asking myself one question. In what game will he suffer the inevitable injury that will keep him out of action at White Hart Lane for most of next season?

Speaking of injured players in North London, the Croats will badly miss Eduardo this summer. Eduardo scored 10 of Croatia's 28 goals in qualifying and Bilic will be relying on Mladen Petric to add to his seven qualifying goals, to bridge this gap.

Croatia's qualifying games averaged three goals per game, though this was boosted by massive victories over the international pub team that is Andorra. From their 12 qualifiers, Croatia were only involved in games containing over 2.5 goals on five occasions.

Austria have not played in a major tournament since the World Cup of 1998 and indeed, have never qualified for the European Championships, until this automatic qualification. A recent 4-3 defeat against Holland (in which they were 3-0 up), points to an ability to score goals against the big teams and of course, an inability to defend. But overall there's been just seven goals in the last 12 games and there could be some truth in the argument that Austria are the weakest side to ever compete in the European Championships.

One might think that the opening game in a group is liable to be cagey and defensive, but statistically there's little to support this. In both 2004 and 2000, half of the four group openers have featured more than 2.5 goals. In 1996 only one group opener broke 2.5, but this was a very low scoring tournament, with an average of just 2.29 goals per game in the group stages, compared to 2.7 in 2000 and 2.66 in 2004.

Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at [1.82], with overs at [2.18]. Austria don't look to have many goals in them, with the 38-year-old Vastic their current top scorer with 13 goals, just above the defensive midfielder Aufhauser with 11. Despite their lack of firepower, they line up in a 4-4-2 formation and don't seem to have the sort of game plan that could see the 'do a Greece' and make the most of their meagre assets. I'm backing overs and think if Croatia score early, Austria could collapse.

Tags: Austria, Croatia, Luca Modric, Mladen Petric