Austria v Croatia - Match odds, First goalscorer, correct score, half-time, corners odds

Match 03 - Austria v Croatia / Dave Farrar / 07 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The first of the best value bets of the tournament is on the horizon, and for those of us who've been keen to oppose Austria since the draw was made, and who have already taken prices on them finishing bottom of Group B, then [1.97] about Croatia to win this opening match is a great price.

In fact, I would say that their true price is nearer [1.6] and so being able to back the Croatians at nearly even money is great value. I'll reiterate the point that I made in my team preview for Austria - they would be nowhere near this tournament if they had had to qualify for it. In fact, I think that they would have finished in as low as fifth place in many of the qualifying groups. The world rankings may be flawed, but Austria do not even make the top 100, and could end up being the worst ever team to play in a European Championship.

In 2000 and 2004, Slovenia and Latvia came in as underrated minnows, and surprised a few people in the tournament proper, but it would be difficult to underrate Austria. They are that bad. In contrast, Croatia finished top of their qualifying group, and even without the brilliant Eduardo, they'll be more than good enough. I feel that he'll be a massive miss in the other two group games, and I'm not convinced that Croatia will qualify, but they can do without him here. Austria have home advantage, but Croatia have already beaten Austria in Austria twice, and the presence of a capacity crowd could be more of a hindrance to the co-hosts than a help. If they try to go forward, then they'll be picked off on the counter attack - think England at Wembley. If they sit back and try to defend, then I don't think that they're good enough to hold out. They couldn't even defend a three goal lead against Holland a couple of months ago, and their coach Josef Hickersberger has the look and the sound of a man who knows that his team will struggle. Whichever way that the game is played, 1.97 is a great price for Slaven Bilic's side to start with a win, and I'm going to get stuck in.

HALF TIME

It's Croatia all the way for me in all markets, and with confidence. [2.7] for them to be leading at half time is a perfectly fair price for a side which is so superior, and, although they couldn't manage a goal in either game against Russia in qualifying, the challenge posed by Austria won't be anywhere near as tough. Austria's level will be below that of even a poor England, and although Croatia have scored a huge percentage of their major tournament goals in the second half of matches, I still think that they'll have this one won by half-time.

FIRST GOALSCORER

Opposing Mladen Petric in this market, even at [5.5], might seem to be madness. After his seven goals in qualifying, he's the most obvious goalscoring threat along with Ivica Olic, but I'm putting my faith in the man who scored Croatia's first goal on three occasions in qualifying, Dario Srna. Srna doesn't get goals for Shakhtar Donetsk, where he plays in a more defensive role, but has an impressive 15 goals in 55 internationals, and he takes penalties. He plays pretty much as a winger for the national side, and he's trading at the moment at [14.5]. I'd put in a bigger price, say [18.5], and see if you can get it matched. This is one of those markets in which you shouldn't just take any price that's there, but always try and create your own.

CORRECT SCORE

I'm torn here between 3-0 for Croatia at around [20.0], and the "any unquoted" option at [12.0]. Croatia can score goals, as they proved against Israel and England in qualifying, but they may not dish out a thrashing in their opening game and so I'm going for a comfortable 3-0 win for Bilic's team. They are good enough to stop Austria from scoring, despite the presence of the Austrian David Beckham, Andreas Ivanschitz. He's their best player, but he's not that good, and I just can't see someone like Roland Linz being a threat.

CORNERS

While I can see Croatia applying pressure and winning comfortably, this is another of those matches in which I'd be inclined to go under the corners. Neither side makes great use of wide men, and neither is particularly gung ho. Austria because they can't be, and Croatia because they don't need to be. To be honest, [1.97] is such a good price for Croatia to win the game, and Srna such potential value as first goalscorer, that I'm not keen to play in this market, but I certainly wouldn't be buying corners.

Tags: Andreas Ivanschitz, Austria, Croatia, Dario Srna, Ivica Olic, Mladen Petric, Roland Linz