Match 03 - Austria v Croatia / Matthew Walton / 07 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Here we have the entrance of the second host nation into the tournament - and thankfully for the Austrians they are a host nation.

Without such patronage from UEFA it's fair to say the country currently ranked No.92 in the world, who have never before qualified for these finals, would not be here.

They take on Croatia, No.15 in the world, the conquerors of the English, who present a stern test first time out for Josef Hickersberger's men.

As hosts, Austria get to participate in these finals but as a result of automatic qualification their preparation has come via friendlies, far from ideal, whilst the Croats are battled hardened after a tough qualification campaign. It should make for an entertaining game.

As with every match in Euro 2008 we will be providing you with a two-pronged attack on the betting markets. Firstly, we will highlight the 10-year trends of the two sides competing in each match. Secondly, we will further our analysis with a look at Match Facts which are specific head-to-head meetings, tournament qualification and general statistical analysis.

Together this will provide an insight into four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Austria v Croatia - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Austria - P39 W15 D9 L15 F59 A64, clean sheets 13/39 (33%)
Croatia - P64 W37 D17 L10 F110 A46, clean sheets 34/64 (53%)

The bare facts don't bode well for the Austrians. They lose as many as they win and concede an average of 1.64 goals/game. Croatia have lost just 15% of matches in this period and score an average of 1.71 goals/game. Defensively they concede far fewer than the Austrians and on the clean sheet statistics Croatia have a huge 20% advantage.

Austria v Croatia - Match Facts

Three previous meetings between the sides, all won by Croatia. Two in Austria and the latest, a 4-1 trouncing, came just a couple of years ago. Put that together with a greater 'match fitness' of the Croats and the omens aren't good for home supporters.

Hickersberger has issues at the back. Conceding an average of 1.50 goals/game is a major obstacle to overcome (more so when you only score 1.16 goals/game). Austria have won just 20% of matches during his reign and only 18% of their warm-up matches.

Bilic hasn't been in charge for long but a 70% win percentage and an average of 2.15 goals/game is impressive. Qualification was highlighted by plenty of goals scored, few conceded and a very healthy win ratio (75%) in what was a tricky group.

Austria v Croatia - Market Analysis

Outright result - given current statistics and past history there seems little encouragement to back Austria, even at [5.0]. The draw has appeal if Austria can raise their game but the [1.96] for a Croatia win - on the statistics - appears to be good value.

Correct Score - The facts suggest a 2-0 Croatia win [10.0] has to be considered (they won two qualification matches 2-0). A saver, on account of Austria's scoring potential, would be on the 2-1 Croatia win [9.8] but Bilic's men could even win this more easily.

First Goalscorer - Srna [15.0] looks a big price with Petric [7.0] a good alternative. Between them they scored first in 4 of Croatia's 12 qualification games (Eduardo was first scorer in four himself but isn't here through injury). Srna may well take penalties as well.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - has to be over. However, at around [1.38] you pays your money and you takes your choice. There may be better value to be had in the 'Over 2.5' market at [2.2]. There should be goals in this match.

Conclusion

This is the first of three tough matches for the Austrians. It will very much set the tone.

Croatia have to be strongly fancied to start off with a win and the odds of [1.97] look the best bet in the match. We may see the Austrians belie their world ranking but all the statistics say they will be found out by a free-scoring and defensively competent Croats.

We're only just getting started in this tournament and the betting opportunities are coming through thick and fast. There appears to be some good value on offer for this match on Betfair and armed with this analysis you should be first in the queue to snap it up!

Tags: Austria, Croatia