Match 03 - Austria v Croatia / Editor / 07 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The HT draw, as well as the FT draw, is a big runner in the opening group games, when teams are anxious to avoid defeat and games are usually very tight.

EURO 2008: AUSTRIA v CROATIA

Half-Time

2.0 is the average goals per game in European Championships since the current format was adopted in 1980.

At the seven Euro tournaments since 1980, 25/40 (63%) of the opening games have had HT draws, which indicates that backing the HT draw across the board has some merit as it is odds-against in seven of the eight opening group games this year, including this match [2.18]. Of those 25 HT draws, 19 were 0-0, five 1-1 and one 2-2.

Austria's recent lack of competitive games and tournament experience makes them difficult to evaluate, though in their last two qualifying campaigns they have played three home games against teams ranked in the top 20 and trailed at HT in all three.

At the past four major tournaments, the most common HT outcome for teams ranked 30-70 against teams ranked 5-25 is the HT draw (25/59), closely followed by 23 HT wins for the higher-ranked team.

In their last two qualifying campaigns and tournaments, Croatia's most common HT outcome in games outside their homeland is the HT draw (9/21) and the vast majority of those HT draws have been against teams ranked outside the top 20 (HT draw in 8/16 in that category).

HT/FT

With the propensity of draws in opening group games, it is not surprising that the most common HT/FT outcome is D-D, which accounts for 12/40 (30%) of opening-game results since 1980. On the overall figures the D-D [6.0] looks too big.

Croatia have been behind at HT in just 5/21 games outside their homeland in their last two qualifying campaigns and tournaments and have lost only once in 16 when not trailing at the break, so their predominant HT/FT results have been in their favour (six W-W, five D-D).

Austria clean sheet

It is more than a decade since Austria won a competitive international against a team in the top 20 of the SOS Rankings and since then, they are W0-D2-L8 against such teams, conceding every time (W0-D2-L3 at home). Croatia have scored in 15/21 games outside their homeland in their last two qualifying campaigns and tournaments, though 5/6 of their failures to score have been in 16 games against teams ranked outside the top 20. Whilst this puts some value in the [4.8] Austrian clean sheet price, the market looks fairly well set.

Croatia clean sheet

Croatia have kept a clean sheet in 10/21 games outside their homeland in their last two qualifying campaigns and tournaments, including 9/16 against teams ranked outside the top 20. In their last two qualifying campaigns, Austria have scored in 8/9 at home, failing to score only against the Netherlands (then ranked five) in qualifying for Euro 2004. In this context, the [2.44] Croatia clean sheet price looks about right.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.
All analysis, unless otherwise noted, is based on competitive games since the beginning of the of the 1998 world cup finals

Tags: Austria, Croatia