Match 03 - Austria v Croatia / Editor / 07 June 2008 / Leave a comment

It's fair to say that Austrian fans are not optimistic about their team's chances in their first European Championship finals - one group of supporters have even started an online petition to get the team withdrawn from the competition, fearing that their performances will embarrass the nation.

They will certainly not be heartened by the prospect of facing a talented Croatian team in their first match. Not only are the Croatians being hotly-tipped as outsiders for the title, but they have been victorious in all six previous meetings between the two nations.

Croatia will clearly see this as a must-win game against probably the weakest team in the competition. With the talent available to them, including the Tottenham-bound playmaker Luka Modric, the Croatians are understandably expected to emerge victorious. However, the loss of star striker Eduardo da Silva is an obvious blow, and they may struggle to finish off the chances created by their talented midfield. Austria's experienced coach Josef Hickersberger has built his team on a strong defence, so while the Croatians are likely to enjoy plenty of possession, they may find it hard to break down an organised Austrian back line. Even so, it's difficult to imagine the hosts holding out for 90 minutes, so a bet on Croatia -0.5 at [1.96] in the Asian Handicap market looks a decent proposition.

In the absence of Eduardo, the goalscoring burden will fall on Mladen Petric, who scored seven goals in qualifying, including the strike which finally put England out of their misery - he looks a decent bet at [2.68] in the To Score market. The support striker's role will fall to one of several reserves including the experienced Ivica Olic, veteran of two World Cups, who can be backed at [3.5]. However, a more interesting proposition might be 20-year old Nikola Kalinic (scorer of 17 goals in the Croatian league last season), at around [3.75] - if Croatia do struggle to break down the hosts' defence, a substitute appearance from the youngster might make the difference. Portsmouth's Niko Kranjcar, a free-kick specialist, is also worth considering at [6.2]. As for the Austrians, their main striker Roland Linz is an option at [3.8], but he has only 7 goals from 32 internationals, so if he continues to misfire it may be another 20-year old, in the shape of highly-rated Werder Bremen forward Martin Harnik, who proves more effective - he is available at [5.8]. Their only established star is captain and playmaker Andreas Ivanschitz, seen as 'the Austrian Beckham', who can be backed at [5.9].

The Half time / Full Time market is of particular interest, given that despite their emphasis on defence, the Austrians have a tendency to fall away badly in the second half of matches. In recent friendlies they have surrendered a 3-1 half time lead against Holland to lose 3-4, lost 0-3 to Germany after a goalless first half, and even lost 1-3 to co-hosts Switzerland after being tied 1-1 at the interval. So, it's definitely worth considering the Draw / Croatia option, at [5.3].

Looking at the bookings markets, the evidence seems to point to a clean contest, with few yellow cards being flourished. Although one of Austria's key players will be Emanuel Pogatetz - once nicknamed 'Mad Dog', and sent off in his county's last competitive match, a World Cup qualifier back in 2005 - he seems to have calmed down in recent seasons, and Austria as a team are not known for an overly physical approach. As they have only played friendlies recently, their bookings record is not really a reliable guide (although they have only received two yellow cards in their eleven matches over the last year). More significant is the fact that Croatia picked up only eight yellow cards (an average of 0.67 per game) in their qualifying campaign. As such, it is worth considering 5 points and under at [4.2] in the Booking Odds market, unless referee Peter Vink wants to make a show of implementing the new referee's guidelines early on in the tournament, in which case 6-8 points might be more realistic, at [2.02]. Meanwhile, the Bookings Index market for this match is currently around the 50-54 mark, so given the two teams' disciplinary record, you might want to consider selling here.

Tags: Andreas Ivanschitz, Austria, Croatia, Emanuel Pogatetz, Ivica Olic, Luka Modric, Martin Harnik, Mladen Petric, Niko Kranjcar, Nikola Kalinic, Roland Linz